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PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

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  • jrj90620 jrj90620 Apr 21, 2005 4:36 PM Flag

    Pullback now 15.3%...

    <I could see a confluence of events that takes the Dow down to 4000 but find it fairly unlikely. The financial sector would have to undergo a complete meltdown which would cause a severe depression. 8000 is a more reasonable bottom over the next few years. A lot depends on what China and Japan do. They can really shaft us if they want to.>

    Don't forget that you have to take inflation into account when projecting future prices of anything.If the Fed is successful in creating inflation elsewhere to catch up with housing inflation then the Dow doesn't have to fall at all to be a loser in inflation adjusted prices.Before 1980 1000 on the Dow was considered high.Now 10000 is equivalent to 1000 in 1980.

 
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