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PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

  • ted42001 ted42001 May 16, 2005 5:00 PM Flag

    bought puts

    when interest rates are rising the market will tank,more specifically interest sensitive stocks such as financials and home builders will go lower. this is my opinion as well as history.

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    • <<< when interest rates are rising the market will tank,more specifically interest sensitive stocks such as financials and home builders will go lower. this is my opinion as well as history. >>>

      It's also the opinion of virtually every hedge fund and amateur short seller. It's certainly what the "playbook" that everyone knows on Wall Street says will happen. Thus, the interest rate worries are already priced into the stock, and then some. PHM can rise even as interest rates rise; in fact it has done so already over the past 2 years:

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=%5ETNX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=phm

      Moral of the story: what "everyone knows" isn't worth knowing. "Everyone knows" about the interest rate rise expectations, it's priced in and more. What everyone does not know is that such rate increases will not crush PHM's earnings, and that over time the current share price will be seen to have been too low - far too low.

    • which ones? I'm looking to buy puts also.

 
PHM
19.115-0.045(-0.23%)11:52 AMEDT

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