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PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

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    • for all of you young whippersnappers out there--from a 78 yr old, retired,(at age 52 by prudent real estate investments)and also was a professional realtor(owner of a r e brokerage firm with 10/12 employees)--here is my objective assement of this, so called- r e bubble---some real world and exact #s that show an underlying, overall, movement of r e prices for your consideration..
      48 yrs ago i arrived in s florida and went to see a new subdivision of modest homes in a good waterfront area-very basic 2/ and 3 bedders no a/c not fancy--1300/1500 sq ft total-selling for 13,900$ to 15,900$-- i saw them rise slowly to 17/19k over a few years, and the locals, plus realtors said they are at TOP now, never go into the 20k range.the bubble is ready to burst on these prices, etc.
      To make a long story short, i personally watched and heard this same story at every level on way up from 20k to 30ks to 40ks etc-will never go over this level of price; from even the realtors, who should have been optimistic on prices but even they couldn't see beyond their noses at what was and would keep happening--I kept telling then all they haden't seen anything yet on future pricing, but i was new in town, and what did i know..
      Bottom line-- there is ONE of these 120 project homes in original condition-listed on mls for 1, 400 million on market today --you do the math--from 14/15k to 1,400 million-
      HOW MANY BUBBLES HAS THIS HOME SEEN ON ITS WAY UP--MAYBE A HUNDRED OR SO?? --and still rising--stop and think a bit --do you get the message?? i saw the real world then, and cashed in on it as a LONG home buyer/seller and it enabled me to retire at age 52---yet most of my compatriots are still working, selling these homes that they still don't believe will rise any further---god-do some people never learn--(present company included)

      • 3 Replies to gtay2627
      • <<Bottom line-- there is ONE of these 120 project homes in original condition-listed on mls for 1, 400 million on market today --you do the math--from 14/15k to 1,400 million-
        HOW MANY BUBBLES HAS THIS HOME SEEN ON ITS WAY UP--MAYBE A HUNDRED OR SO?? --and still rising--stop and think a bit --do you get the message??>>

        Yeah, I get the message. The message is that a humble 1300-1500 sq. ft. house in FL is selling for 1.4 million dollars, and you think this is normal. And that these price increases will never end. You were a child in the 1930s, but not *of* the 1930s apparently. You have forgotten what can happen when people get out of control and lose their sense of value. The Florida land bubble played a role in the crash of '29, and it may just happen again when interest rates rise and the speculators---now 38% of the housing market---rush for the exits.

      • gtay2627,

        What do you think of Interest-Only ARMs? They are the only thing that worry me about this market as opposed to times past. Wouldn't they have been considered a bit odd when you were an agent?

      • Same old 78yr veteran of real estate wars---just to add- based on my previous experience of having ALSO lived in 2 different Pulte/del webb homes and subdivisions at sun city west and sun city grande, near phoenix ariz--I can assure you that overall they do a great job of building active senior citz communities--just what i wanted and still do --and most baby boomers seem to like and buy--tons of quality infastructure and amenities, well built homes and very good dealer follow thru on any minor problems, etc--and almost always in prime retirement areas and climates..
        I'm not saying phm is perfect--but they are way better than any developers i have seen , and i was a proffesional realtor for many yrs and can tell the differences, believe me.
        Also, the other builder/developer in s florida , Di vosta homes, that phm has acquired is of same overall quality of homes and amenity package as del webb, i almost bought one of theirs, myself--but moved out of area first..
        Knowing from personal exp of pulte/.delwebb/divosta I am a happy LONG here, as i feel this stock like the homes pricing I talked about in my previous post , has much appreciation to come, and this is not a pump--just a the facts, as i see them--

 
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