I havn't heard and upgrades from other homebuilders eventhough many of them are doing very well. The STRONG BUY from JP Morgan was well justified. They will build till the cows come home in SW Florida with a business model comparable to none.
<<< If the bald guy can influenece the price, it is best a short term swing. The fundamentals are what will carry a stock, not the hype of the bash. Now it is possible for a Micro cap or a penny stock to be swung wildly, but not a large cap. Go bash GE or PFE.....do you think it will matter. PHM is decent size....you or I are not going to impact it. >>>
Well that's essentially true. I suppose the bashers here are trying to influence the stock in the short term, because they want to scalp a short term profit on FEAR. The bald guy can definitely move a stock in the short term, even a fairly big stock. And although PHM is now a "mid cap", it was a small cap (like all other HBs) through the 1990s; maybe the bashers just haven't realized that they can't manipulate this sector to the extent they could when it was smaller.
I have to think though that the main reason the shorts don't like longs such as myself, is that they'd rather bash here unchallenged. They don't want to be held accountable for their past dismal performance, as this would undermine their credibility as bashers. They want to inspire PANIC, NOW! Can they do it? Well I still think that if everyone who read these boards were to panic and dump their shares, or avoid buying in the first place, or even decide to go short rather than their pursue inclination to go long, then yes the bashers would have a Cramer-like short term influence. Long term of course it would be results that mattered, not the psychology of fear.
However, I do think that all the "scare tactics" thrown at this sector over the years (mainly in the short-fed financial press) have had a long term impact. For one thing, the shorts have managed to get their view ingrained into the public perception that the big homebuilders have highly cyclical earnings, when the actual data says otherwise. So they've managed to get people to believe that the sector "deserves" a lot PE multiple, based on the misconception of extreme cyclicality.
The other way they've hurt the sector is by inducing extreme volatility. The share prices of the sector have been far more volatile than should be the case, given that the year-to-year earnings have been rather smooth (varying mainly from gains of 15% one year to 55% another year, but gains are gains, it's not as if these are declining earnings or losses). Because the shorts are trying to do their short term manipulation, and sometimes succeed, the stocks have had some sharp short term pullbacks. Followed of course by the reality of consistently rising earnings, thus the stock prices move up sharply to new highs, off of those sharp pullbacks. The net effect is that the charts show "volatility", but that's been emotional volatility, not fundamental volatility. However, when a stock is perceived to be volatile, people fail to separate emotional volatility from fundamental volatility. A stock with high fundamental volatility tends to trade at a much lower PE than one that has low fundamental volatility. Yet I would argue that PHM has low fundamental volatility, at least a lot lower than the fluctuating share price and low PE would imply. And that's been a long term effectk, not a short term one. Thus the "scare tactics" of the bashers, while apparently ineffective over anything but the shortest term, have actually had a depressing effect on the longer term pricing of this stock and this sector. Thus it IS important to reveal the bashers as they are and hold them accountable, with the thought that eventually the public will wake up to the realities of the fundamental story here, rather than focusing on the basher-induced emotional volatility of the shares.
<<< Do you think that message board posters with names like "Tokyo Joe" (aka "Tokyo Mex") have no influence? >>>
I should point out, for public benefit (as well as to influence the share price by more than 2 cents in my favor!), that "Tokyo Joe" or "Tokyo Mex" has never (to my knowledge) posted on this board or any HB board. But there was a guy using those names who was highly influential (his real name was Park, originally from Korea I believe) and he wound up in jail. From what I could tell, it was a bit unfair that he was sent to jail, it seems to me that what he did was no different than what Merrill Lynch and others were doing. But I guess the "big boys" didn't like some message board guy playing the game better than they were doing it, so they got the law on his case. I don't know why ML people like Blodgett and Kowalski aren't in jail, when Park was sent there. I guess ML can afford better lawyers or are better connected with the politicians, DAs and AGs. My point though was that in his heyday, Park (Tokyo Joe/Mex) DID move many stocks by far more than 2 cents/share.
<<< Come on ALex, you know as well as I that if every long here sold their shares, it would not influence the stock price by .02 cents. >>>
And that's why the shorts keep "advising" everyone to "Sell! Sell! Sell!" all the time, or to "avoid this stock"? Because they know that such "advice" has no impact on the share price? Come on Boerbel, YOU are smarter than that. While I don't believe that MBs have much influence, you can't make a blanket statement such as "they wouldn't have 2 cents worth of influence". Show your work there.
Do you think that the BS in Barron's and the WSJ has no influence over the stock price? Do you think some guy appearing on CNBC, particularly a bald guy ranting and gyrating wildly, has no influence on share price? Do you think that message board posters with names like "Tokyo Joe" (aka "Tokyo Mex") have no influence? Any "media" outlet can have influence, in some small or unexpectedly large way. I do find it interesting though, that while the vast majority of the posters here are bashers, whenever someone claims that these boards have zero influence on the share price, it's a basher who says that. So I guess the bashers here are just helpful altruists, but never ever hope to have ANY impact on share price, in ANY way. Is that your claim?
<<< Now there is a large bulder here that is now offering free basements with every purchase. He I was under the impression that in most homes here basements were pretty much a standard item. See, learn something new every day. In Phoenix, some are starting to offer a free pool. >>>
Yeah, and 3 years ago the bears were exstatic that DR Horton was offering a $5k discount on homes in one of their Texas markets. And one or two years ago, someone (I think it was RYL, may have been DHI) was offering a free flat panel big screen tv (worth 5-6k) with every home. There are always people throwing in "free" stuff, always some sort of come on or other, you can't judge the health of the overall market by those things. A "free pool" I'm going to guess would be for a price far higher than a home without the "free pool". Anecdotes are all you bashers have had for years; thankfully the investors have overall profitability on their side.
Boerbel I realize that you aren't actually a short seller (though you've been leaning that way, from lower share prices), just a guy with some free time on his hands. But don't assume that everyone's interest in posting here is merely "academic". Even if you are right - that if everyone who ever read this board either sold their PHM shares or avoided buying them, wouldn't move the stock even 2 cents/share - I doubt the many bashers here feel that way. Because I doubt there are so many here who have no position, just here for the grins. But that's just a guess on my part, HAGD and HAGW yourself.
BTW - are you a Bears fan? Chicago Bears that is? Will they win 5 games or more this year? I'm thinking that 5-11 would be the best possible record for the Bears this year, but I haven't been able to follow them closely. Hopefully the Bears will do better than the bears on this board! If the Bears were that bad, wow, we'd be looking at 2-14 at best!
Great post and great work overall jraye41! These bashers have been saying the same things about the homebuilders year after year. They are hugely frustrated by their long term losses, and they hope that their relentless bashing can scare away investors here. Maybe the bashing - especially as we've seen in the press, as funneled to the press via the shorts - has worked to some degree. That could be why the PEs here are far lower than they should be. But over time, it's earnings, financial position, and business strength that will matter.
The bears here are saying things like "look it's finally turning, bwahahaha". But if you go back six months, a year, 2 years, whatever, you'll see the exact same type of comments from the bears. It's truly laughable how they keep making the same "points" over and over again, only to be disappointed by the reality of the business here - higher profits and higher stock prices. Some of these bears even consider that they've just had "bad luck" and the longs have been "lucky" - how clueless is that? Actually it's the bears that have been lucky, that the HBs are valued so low relative to earnings - but that luck can change, and the sector CAN see PE multiples of 12-15 and eventually 15-20 if not higher. Will that happen? Over time, it probably will. But even if the PEs remain at 8-12 forever, this sector, and PHM in particular, can go much higher just on EPS growth.
Keep up the good work; it's nice to see a relatively new poster who "gets it" on this board. Remember, the bears here will do everything they can to shake you out of your position. Many of the dimmer bears hate me here, mainly because they can't shake me out - I'm here as long as I choose to be, on my terms not theirs. And the bears don't want to see the logical arguments that I've presented here over the years, they don't want anything on these boards except "goin down!" and "sell now!!" type comments. If the bears wind up hating you like they do me, wear that as a badge of honor. And the $$$ you will make here by buying and holding as long as the business is great and undervalued, is definitely what matters!
Let's see, I have a market that represents 20% of my sales going gang-busters in a sellers market, while 80% is doing good, going into rising rates, price pressures, tapped out consumers, rising energy cost, rising cost of insurance, building materials, taxes, etc. etc...
Ya, and I think I'll go buy some GM stock while I'm at it. They said they're optimistic on the Truck/SUV market to drive their future sales.
When are you going to get it?
Anaircraft carrier takes about 12 miles before it can come to a full stop. Doesn't do it on a dime and neither will the HBs. This is just the beginning of that slow decline.
Won't happen all at once. Like putting a frog in a kettle of water and putting it over a stove.
Won't know what hit you till your already boiled.
By the way, that was UBS pumping at the end of that article, not JPM; we already know Whelan (UBS) was shillin for the HBs, so what's new? That's what my point was, they'll pump it while they sell out their firms (stock) inventory.