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PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

  • davenport47 davenport47 Oct 18, 2005 2:31 PM Flag

    Alex's Disappearing Act

    I was just over on the LEN board complimenting someone for digging up one of Alex's old posts, as Alex so often does with mine. I know Alex would rather I ignore him, but I think this is worth repeating here:

    Date: 10/02/05 11:53 pm
    [Alex said:]
    S&P announcement should obviously should help LEN this week, both as index funds "must" add LEN eventually, and for the S&P "validation" of LEN. Heck, maybe LEN reaches my $80/share target this year rather than next year. Probably not this year, but it is possible, and I wouldn't mind if it did!"

    LEN now trading at 54.22, down 1.71. My TA is looking far better than Alex's pompous prognostications.

    Also, Alex tends to disappear when the news is bad and his stocks are going down. We shorts hang in there through thick and thin. As I said on the LEN board, I expect Alex might disappear completely once all his profits are gone. Given Alex's ridicule of us shorts, I think we should get a committment from him to stick around and take his hits when the HB PEs hit 5 or 6. Anyone second the motion?

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    • <<< What are you talking about? I've "lost"? You mean the shorts are all toast after PHM drops nearly 20% from the high??? >>>

      Davenport, isn't PHM up 16% for the year? I'd rather have it be up 16% for the year, yet down 25% from this year's high, than down 16% for the year, yet up 25% from the year's low. And don't forget that PHM is up more than 50% from the 52 week low, etc.

      Also, aren't you down more than 10% on your LEN short?

      But I also meant, you've been down on the HB sector essentially all year, yet the profits for large builders like PHM keep going higher, and estimates for the future keep getting raised. So you've "lost" in that sense too, that you haven't gotten the fundamentals right. I realize that your main focus is on technicals/share price, but I thought the heart of your argument was that the business itself of PHM was in decline, and that has not actually been seen. PHM is down 25% from the high, not due to any EPS downturn or shortfall, but merely due to psychology. If you are trying to predict psychology, good luck, but I thought yoy were trying to predict the actual business.

      As usual, I believe you are making your same old/same old case about the homebuilders being highly cyclical. Again you've failed to recognize the changes in the industry, and that PHM today is not comparable to some "mom n pop" spec builder of the 1970's/80's, leveraged with bank debt to the hilt, all their eggs in one geographic market, etc.

      But go ahead, make that "case" without input from me. If you don't believe you've "lost" yet, give it time. See what PHM reports in a week. See where the stock is in 7 months. See where it is in a year, in 2 years, at the end of 2010. And then think to yourself - if you are fairminded about it - Alex was right. It won't be the end of the world for you, you can still be a good person... that's what matters most, so don't be unhappy when you do see that you've lost - it's just one small part of life really. Best wishes to you in your other endeavors.

    • What % of homebuyers are immigrants (illegal or otherwise? Does any one konw? I read that 28% of homebuyers over the last 12 months were speculators - if that's true there are probably a lot property owners who will sell in a heartbeat when prices stop appreciating. Add to that the ARMs that a lot of people can barely afford that are about to get more unaffordable, and demand could dry up rather quickly.

      Oh, wait, it already has. At least, it has started to dry up.

    • Ever read a prospectus? "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns."

      Housing is slowing down. Share prices based on expectations of continued exponential growth are overinflated. Stock price is getting cooked. Wake up and smell the napalm.

    • <No, you need to do *your* homework. Homebuilding is traditionally a cyclical industry. Now, in the last 30 years (assuming your data is correct) you've seen an anomaly---the baby-boom---moving through the housing market, keeping things cooking. The boomers (born between 1946 and 1965) are not yet at retirement age. When they reach retirement, we'll see increases in certain market segments. In the meantime, the housing market has recently risen to unsustainable levels because of Greenspan's unprecedented lowering of interest rates to keep a Republican in the White House and "save" us all from recession. We will be paying the consequences for this, and for other indulgences such as record personal and government debt. There is no free lunch.>

      All true but don't forget the massive immigration(much higher than govt figures) that I believe has played a big part in the strength of housing over the last decade.

    • No, you need to do *your* homework. Homebuilding is traditionally a cyclical industry. Now, in the last 30 years (assuming your data is correct) you've seen an anomaly---the baby-boom---moving through the housing market, keeping things cooking. The boomers (born between 1946 and 1965) are not yet at retirement age. When they reach retirement, we'll see increases in certain market segments. In the meantime, the housing market has recently risen to unsustainable levels because of Greenspan's unprecedented lowering of interest rates to keep a Republican in the White House and "save" us all from recession. We will be paying the consequences for this, and for other indulgences such as record personal and government debt. There is no free lunch.

    • Homebuilders are cyclical? You need to do your homework. Pulte is on the list of 30 best performing stocks over the last 30 years. PHM has average annualized gains of over 18% during the last 3 decades. Not only is that outstanding, it reflects the consistent earnings and revenue growth of this phenomenal company.

    • <<But enough, enough, enough between us. Let's just sit back and watch it play out. I've wasted enough time on you, you've lost - the share price shows that if nothing else.>>

      What are you talking about? I've "lost"? You mean the shorts are all toast after PHM drops nearly 20% from the high??? Give up this nonsensical polemic, Alex. It doesn't become you. Furthermore, I'm not mad at you, just get a bit frustrated when I have to set the record straight after you twist it up with misrepresentations.

    • <<< Now, if you don't mind telling us, what's the difference between thinking PHM is worth less than $35 (because of the PPI) and thinking the price should "immediately" reflect that opinion. If a person thinks something IS worth less, he would OF COURSE suppose an immediate price adjustment is correct. I did not tie the PPI to the current price, but was thinking more about the future---how inflation might affect the price of PHM in the future. Any idiot ought to be able to understand that. >>>

      Ok Davenport, you did directly not tie PHM being a "Strong Sell" at $35.18 to the PPI numbers. However, you did say "strong sell" and you did say the PPI was "significant" (PHM shares are now ABOVE the level they held when that was released). But you are right, you didn't tie the two together. Nor did I say that you did - I merely CONJECTURED that this might be the case. I wrote <<< ... especially when you think those PPI numbers somehow meant that PHM was worth less than $35, or whatever your thinking was about that. >>> You have to learn to finish those sentences, to get the "or whatever your thinking was about that" - which indicates it was CONJECTURE on my part, not a statement of your opinion. You have failed, again.

      As I said before Dav, goodbye and good luck. You know my position on PHM, and I suspect you are beginning to realize that I'm right. And yet your anger toward me seems to be keeping you from seeing clearly, from accepting the reality that's trying to seep into your brain (what there is of it). That's ok - I actually enjoy it when shorts get angry, stay the course on a losing trade, and lose more. The more I criticize your TA, the more you seem to embrace it; you've essentially got a death grip on your beloved TA now.

      But enough, enough, enough between us. Let's just sit back and watch it play out. I've wasted enough time on you, you've lost - the share price shows that if nothing else. You'll continue to lose over time. I know that now, you'll eventually know that if you can accept reality, once it gets here. PHM reports in a week. See if you can find something else to do for a week, rather than trying to "fight" with those who are not on your level. Goodbye, and good luck!

    • Alex, you are getting sillier every day, and I just have a couple of comments. First of all, I made it clear at the time that I don't believe ANYONE can make long-term predictions when it comes to HB earnings, which are generally cyclical as well as beholden to economic forces beyond their control. Yes, my post was intended to be satirical of your post. You have no sense of humor, so you didn't get it.

      Second, this "lie" you say I told about you misrepresenting me is nonsense. You said: ". . .but you are so far off the mark, especially when you think those PPI numbers somehow meant that PHM was worth less than $35. . . ."

      Now, if you don't mind telling us, what's the difference between thinking PHM is worth less than $35 (because of the PPI) and thinking the price should "immediately" reflect that opinion. If a person thinks something IS worth less, he would OF COURSE suppose an immediate price adjustment is correct. I did not tie the PPI to the current price, but was thinking more about the future---how inflation might affect the price of PHM in the future. Any idiot ought to be able to understand that.

      But you say instead: "Now I don't see the word 'immediate' or anything like that." But again: If someone thinks the price is wrong because of some bit of news, then "immediately" wrong is implied. And I did not make such a claim.

      Insofar as long-term sentiment is concerned, since I believe that PHM will decline over the long term, then my sentiment indicator ought to read "Strong Sell." Do I think that PHM will be trading lower than $35 within a long-term timeframe? Yes, I do. Is that clear enough?

    • (The end of my post got cut off. Should read...)

      ... We'll see how this plays out; actually I already know how it will play out (longer term), while you will find out how wrong you've been. I look forward to that point in time, which is not far off now. Meantime you may imagine that you will "one day" be proven right (you have a buddy in that in Val, he's been waiting over 4 years), but I see no reason to "debate" things with you - we are simply on different levels here. Goodbye and good luck.

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