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PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

  • uspsetkirk uspsetkirk Nov 3, 2005 11:37 AM Flag

    GOOD NEWS, new mortg. rates FRE

    11/3/2005 11:30:00 AM ET
    *DJ Freddie Mac 1-Yr ARM Rate Rises To 5.09% From 4.91%

    11/3/2005 11:28:00 AM ET
    *DJ Freddie Mac 5-Yr ARM Rate Rises To 5.76% From 5.63%

    11/3/2005 11:26:00 AM ET
    *DJ Freddie Mac 15-Yr Fixed Rate Rises To 5.85% From 5.69% .

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    • <Sorry, it's not that simple. Dollar was devalued under Reagan, and interest rates subsequently went DOWN. Under Carter, interest rates went through the roof even as US had a surplus. >

      Nothing that you say contradicts my point. Reagen had biggest deficit up to his time. Did exactly what I said: devalued the dollar instead of raising rates in order to pay for deficit. Under Carter, there was no deficit, but there was inflation. I was only talking about how the US will try to solve the deficit. Inflation and anti-inflationary measures cause rise in rates, sometimes regardless of deficits.

    • Alas,an angry Alex.

      That's what happens when you get greedy, man!

      Ho ho ho!

    • If it were true can you imagine what kind of life it would be, the life of a shrill?

      Somehow I doubt this to be the case.

    • <<< May not quite that simple. Deficits can be reduced by 1)higher exports 2) higher interest rates 3) currency devaluation.
      Your assumption of strong/steady dollar leaves only one way to pay for deficits: Devaluation. >>>

      Sorry, it's not that simple. Dollar was devalued under Reagan, and interest rates subsequently went DOWN. Under Carter, interest rates went through the roof even as US had a surplus.

      I'm sure you shorts wish you had a handle on interest rates, and you wish that if interest rates went up, it would kill the homebuilders. Sorry but neither of these is true. However, it's great to see so many shorts here - very nice contrary indicator. Keep it up!

    • Beginning to wonder?!? You gotta be kidding. As John McClain in 'Die Hard' once famously said, "Welcome to the Party Pal!!!" Good luck to all.....

    • <But if the yuan merely goes higher, while that's bad for the US economy (competing for oil on the world market against a stronger yuan) it's not bad for interest rates. Pure and simple. >

      May not quite that simple. Deficits can be reduced by 1)higher exports 2) higher interest rates 3) currency devaluation.
      Your assumption of strong/steady dollar leaves only one way to pay for deficits: Devaluation.

    • <<< If china stop buying our paper, US consumer have to step in, otherwise we have to raise interest rate to attact the buyers. Pure and simple. >>>

      China buys US bonds to back their currency, and to get an interest yield as they do it. If the yuan/dollar ratio increases, they will have more dollars to buy more bonds and get more interest. The US would only have to raise interest rates if the dollar slips against the other global currencies (euro, yen, etc.). But if the yuan merely goes higher, while that's bad for the US economy (competing for oil on the world market against a stronger yuan) it's not bad for interest rates. Pure and simple. Pure as the driven-from-office (we soon hope) Snow.

    • If china stop buying our paper, US consumer have to step in, otherwise we have to raise interest rate to attact the buyers. Pure and simple.

    • Boy, he sure was touchy about that last post on currencies wasn't he. I didn't call him a child directly did I?
      Well, I guess if he saw the 10 year go up the past 2 days, so I forgive him.

    • You know, I'm actually beginning to wonder myself if Alex is a paid shill for the homebuilders. Anyone know if he posts on other than the PHM and LEN boards?

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