Sun, Oct 26, 2014, 5:33 AM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

  • stckpkr70 stckpkr70 Jun 3, 2006 12:06 PM Flag

    A must read.........

    Wow......You just don't get it... Listen....
    You will continue to TAKE HUGE LOSSES in the coming 12-18 month being long the builders for the following reasons:

    1- We just went through a boom/bubble and all bubbles lead to eventual busts that exagerate to the downside....much like the parabolic rise of home values?sales over the past 3-4 years.....

    2- Invesntory is at a record high.....this will cause prices to fall like a rock and builders (currently masking thier price cuts through 100k or more via incentives) will be forced to lower their ask....

    3- Foreclosers are just starting to kick in as rates will continue to raise and this will crush the lower middle class and below. We have more home owners than any other time in our countries history....

    4- The Fed must continue to raise rates to fight off inflation. Not raising rates will alos cause the markets to implode as this will be viewed as a Fed who isn't fighting inflation.

    5- When and if the Fed stops raising will not save this industry.....Stopping will signal a slowing economy which will hit the builders too.......

    6- Cost of materials, employees (can you say illegal immigrants?), and inventory will crush their future profit margins (already shrinking).

    7- Builders are warning left and right despite the infamous backlogs that were suppose to lock in future profits for years to come.....Laughable at best.....

    7- Cancellations are sky rocketing like never before......

    8- Off balance sheet transactions....Perhaps the scariest in the bunch........ Loss in depreciation on land and options will hurt badly..... Builders will soon sell land for a loss vs. their padded sales to add to the bottom line the past 2-3 years.......

    9- Builder trade under book value at the bottom of the cycle.....Far from there and this bottom will be worse than any ever seen in our lives......

    10- The trend is down and has just started......Stocks fall much faster vs their climb.....We're trending towards the 2000-2002 levels....Can you say, magnet?

    11- Emerging markets are getting crushed and the global landscape is changing for the worse.....I see a global recession quickly approaching.......

    12- The consumer is going to bring their spending to a stand still as home values WILL fall fast and their ATMs via home equity stop....Consumer sentiment will fall and the consumer is the main source of economic growth in the US.

    13- Geopolitical scene is getting crazy...Iran especially........

    14- Fuel prices are sky rocketing.....

    15- Speculators are gone and now flooding the RE market with panic sells.... 04 and 05 were fueled by speculatyors vs lower rates......

    16- I see for sale signs dotting the landscape and vacant homes all over the DC and surrounding areas....Kind of scary....... 4 homes on my little street alone.......

    17- Most builders have HUGE institutional ownership and they will and are scaling back their positions as the obvious plays out........

    18- I keep reading about valuation, however the builders are and will continue to trade on a forward multiple....These 4-6 pe ratios will soon become 12-15 pe ratios as future earnings come way down......

    19- PHM, SPF, and RYL all warned over the past 3 days......This is just the start as they will continue to lower projections going forward...I thought the back log was a safety net? What will happen when the back log is totally gone?

    20- I can come up with more, but you get the idea........

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I would like to add the following:

      21- Book value will fall from current levels as the value of their land falls......negative earnings are coming....

      22- Huge debt/leverage...Have you seen Hov and Bzh securing their credit facility's? They know what's coming......Some builders have been buying back shares? Who are these clowns? These purchases will be under water for years and possibly never see the old highs......

      23- Scary lending practices and ARMS are going to hurt real bad, real soon.....50 year mortgage? Talk about trying to keep the party going........

 
PHM
19.54+0.03(+0.15%)Oct 24 4:01 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.