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PulteGroup, Inc. Message Board

  • apdplus apdplus May 9, 2011 8:18 PM Flag

    Calling the RE Bottom=April 2011

    Today Zillow came with the "bad" news that Prices in the first quarter fell 3%.
    Is it by design or just stupidity that they do not mention anything about the trends WITHIN the quarter?
    I myself believe it is by design- they plan to profit from it because the numbers indicate a bottom in April 2011 with a possible UP 0.5% prices in May:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/04/06/are-home-price-declines-easing/
    You notice Jan prices came down 1.3% and Feb 1.1% so March should be down ONLY 0.6%
    (1.3+1.1+0.6=3%)
    At this rate April should be flat and May will going up again!
    Yet Zillow is maliciously deceiving the market by Lying about 1% per month decline in the first quarter.:
    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/142924/20110509/housing-market-mortgages-zillow-home-real-estate.htm
    I am sure somebody at Zillow made a lot of buying today of anything RE including housing stocks.
    AS the smart guy said in the next site- Case shiller will announce only in July- August about the RE turning point that happened in April to the housing market:http://seekingalpha.com/article/265747-case-shiller-s-double-dip-has-come-and-gone

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    • I just re-read your post...just wanted all the "sane people " to understand what I mean when I post negative STUFF about stupid people......REALLY Please know everyone that thinks we hit bottom...just simply think about these factors....
      1) balance sheet sucks
      2) economy sucks and will get worse...fact... google Zillow
      3) banks will NEVER go back to 5 yrs ago...credit scores need to be 760 or better,,,( how many people that bought houses before that cannot now? How many do not want to walk away now but are close?
      4)inflation is NOW and will be confirmed 6 months from now ( evryone knows this but our government will not admit it) How much does it take to fill your tank? Does anyone like me go to the grocery store and say "shiat" I just wanted milk!!! Why is my bill 56.00 bucks??????
      5) talk to your neighbors ...do they feel confident on major purchases>
      6) read, read, read , google, google, Bing, Bing, yahoo yahoo ....simply do due dilagence.........


      If you want to buy PHM now then OK, but do not liston to idiots that do not state numbers and FACTS on WHY they think this POS is going up and state "theories" aka buy low and sell high!!! hehehheheehhe they aree morons...Do not take my word on this...READ READ READ

    • Wouldn't rather buy than rent? That's how I felt about throwing $15,000 down the flue every year til I bought a home in 2009. For some people today - including those who were foreclosed out of their homes - that's $25,000 - $30,000/year in rent. And for what?

      See: http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/the-10-worst-cities-for-renters.html

      This is definitely a time where those who have lost big are being squeezed now by investor/landlords making piles on the increased demand for rental housing. Out here in CA investors, are buying homes and renting them for all their inclusive costs: mortgage, taxes, maintenance. The home appreciation they will get later on is an extra kicker.

      When this rough patch is over, we are going to enter upon a gargantuan run in single-family, townhome, and condo housing. There is going to be a gold rush toward owning your own home and getting out from under "throw away" rent.

      • 3 Replies to johnmg47
      • So this article specifically examines Metro areas. Is it new or news to anyone that rents are a larger portion of income in a Metro area anywhere in the world? PHM doesn't build in any of those metro areas so what exactly is the comparison? Of course if I don't want pay high rent to live in Manhattan I can buy cheaper in Newark. But people who rent in Manhattan don't want to do that thus rents there are premium. I notice the article mentions Metro Orlando. PHM does build on in outer Orlando and the rents there are flat as a pancake and foreclosures will be coming on the market for years to come as the courts are beginning to process foreclosures at higher rates as the whole robo-signing mess is painfully worked out. There is no good news where PHM actually builds. They have at least three more years of downward price pressure.

        I don't even know how to address "When this rough patch is over, we are going to enter upon a gargantuan run in single-family, town home, and condo housing." Why not just go out at night and wish on stars as well.

      • OK I agree.........you WILL be right sir honestly.....hmmmmmm but I think your time frame is a little..no a lot off. I will keep my puts in place for now ( Oh btw I have Oct puts. ) The 20 cent rise soo far today is on LIGHT VOLUME......the smart money players will hold their short positins...trust me....hope it goes up another 20 cents and once again I will add to my position..I have 170 contracts now

    • Keep dreaming. No bottom until the foreclosure overhang is gone - another year or 2. I am short 40K shares directly and with options.

    • Adler is good - real good. Beaconomics - out here in CA - is saying the same thing. The Big Turn begins about now. Like a lumbering aircraft carrier on the Hudson, you'll only see the slightest of changes at first; but as long as unemployment ticks down and the demographics remain constant, it will happen.

      Parabolic dips end like parabolic rises. The last part is extreme (like silver last week); like the market after Obama was elected. I saw the sudden drop off in prices last August. It was like a rug was suddenly pulled-out from under the economy. Now, in the last month, asking prices have risen about 8% where I live. It's just as sudden an unexpected as the rise.

      • 1 Reply to johnmg47
      • I sold my home in East Bay, Ca ... probably at the top of the market in Aug '05. Just saw the home went to foreclosure after 5 1/2 years. Guy was an insurance exec in SF with 3 teenagers. 40 other homes in the zip code also went to foreclosure recently. This community was TOP NOTCH. With high rated schools (that's why we moved there) and the best police .. low crime ... and Bay Views of San Pablo.

        I'm thinking of a second home there (much smaller) with prices so low. I want to start sailing again.

        Anyway .... perhaps this kind of activity is a signal ... and "the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater."

 
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