So...to sum up: Beginning in February, 2011 - we have foreclosures going down by double-digits and foreclosure cancellations rising by double-digits; taxable revenues increasing; employment increasing; median prices rising, sales rising, days on market before a sale decreasing.
Sometime in the next two months we should see solid evidence of something changing.
This has been one of the worst years on record for weather systems and commodity rises that would hinder home-buying during the normal season: 6 weeks of freezing cold in January and February, tornadoes and storm systems in the midwest and south during March, and now massive floods in April/May in the south.
A decent summer of weather could change all that.
Saw some nice links this evening. This chart (put out by a researcher for the Atlanta Fed) shows the price/ratio is almost identical to the dregs of the last real estate cycle that topped in 1989. We are at the lows of a 25 year norm.
See - macroblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c834f53ef01543247aea8970c-popup
Then there is this article which graphically shows that the overbuilding accounted for really only half of the bust. If half of the bust came not from an inventory correction but from the financial crisis, then half of the inventory was over-building, half was the rise in unemployment and lack of income that dumped 8.5 ML people on the street, a double-whammy, or what the author calls the potential for a double-boom.
An increase in employment should absorb the foreclosure/financial part of the bust, and even normal housing starts would create a construction burst.
See - seekingalpha.com/article/268309-the-housing-double-boom
Lastly, I looked on altosresearch.com at their charts for different major metro areas in CA. The charts showed the same pattern - declining average days on the market (before a sale) and rising median asking prices. This change began in January, 2011.
ABIA architectural chart:
See - cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?CRE#category=CRE&chart=ABIApril2011.jpg
According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending"
If you look at this chart, billings went straight up throughout all of 2010. If their estimate is true, then construction of all those projects should begin to pick-up this month and continue throughout 2h2011.
All of this data I am putting out leads me to believe that we are very close to a "Turn" in the real economy, and thus employment and housing too.
And then there is this - from our Governor (CA) Jerry Brown - which the writer considers "startling news". A change in the CA economic picture which seemingly turned upwards on a dime in March/April.
See - nytimes.com/2011/05/17/us/17california.html
why do people just provide links with silly questions?
ok, its been reported a zillion times and is known to everyone, foreclosure rate (not total #, total # keeps rising, just like unemployment #'s), the rate has slowed because the govt has told banks to slow the foreclosure process to be sure all T's are crossed and I's dotted. this will not affect the trend and total #'s. banks are still holding foreclosures off the market.
lets start by asking the banks to publish info about homes that are delinquent in payments, this would give a better indication of pending foreclosures. we dont need addresses, just a % of assets that are delinquent and then a breakdown by # of months delinquent, and tack on current L-to-V of the property (use a single stupid source like zillow). wow, wouldnt that be neat to see, reality.
you hypster's keep describing the one shining spec of sand on the beach of a sinking island.
Oh...but I like my tiny speck of sand, because I get more bang for less buck in RE than at any time in the last 15 years. I was always a conservative card player - I like to be careful about what I could lose. The entry point is everything. Lot of bad news out there about housing. Constant drumbeat. What does Pulte do? Go sideways. All the garbage is in the stocks already. Only 3% of Americans believe that a recovery in housing has already begun. So if we are in a room, you got 96 buddies and I have 2. I like those odds, especially if it is directly affecting homebuyer sentiment. I have never seen a sector yet that is 97% OVERSOLD that doesn't come back with a vengeance. It's already happening out here in CA. You will see the anecdotal evidence by the end of summer.
That's great news.
Man, it is hard to be a bull with people screaming at you on these message boards at how stupid you are for being so. Wish I had more dough - I would buy BRP. Any dollar put in KBH, BRP is $2 a year from now; with Pulte - probably $11 is the target. These guys have been left for dead. The lines have been drawn. Lean as lean can be. The only thing that's left is for foreclosure cancellations to rise, housing starts to keep going down, and then in one dramatic month, sometime in the next year, demand will start to push supply. Time is on our side. Just don't know when. Keep posting here. It get awfully lonely at times.
I have never felt as strongly about a recovery in RE as I do today. That said we are in a self reinforcing 'negativity' bubble that is creating enormous opportunities ... certainly not in housing stocks yet ... So I am in a holding pattern as I pursue second income as a real estate agent. Yup! Starting accelerated classes in two weeks and should be licensed at the end of June. May try sales or rental properties .. not sure. Thinking of it more of a hobby for now that could prove very lucrative later. Hoping to get better insights as well from the inside so to speak.
Yes I will keep posting but I'm frankly tired of the nasty bears here ... and won't be reading/commenting on their posts. Regarding that I posted an article a few days ago about rental rates increasing and some shorts see this as bad for housing. That I don't get ... maybe that's my downfall .. but 15 years ago I remember my renters leaving to buy in the same area when I raised rates on my rental. That was in 2000 ... start of the housing boom.
Best to all longs.
I love the housing market and you longs - there is always next year. For the third year in a row, you've been left at the alter. If you keep calling for it you will eventually be right. My guess is at least 2 years out, most likely 3 for the companies that survive - not this one. Buying Centex was amazingly stupid. Yes I am short almost 70K shares including naked calls that I sold. It will drift down for the rest of the year, before another spring run starts by you overly optimistic buyers.
I've got nothing of substance to say.
Looking to buy back some shares.
Watching John's short on another stock ironically.
A personal favorite announced a split after hours.
Getting ready for the "dull" summer. Next summer shouldn't be with politicians causeing even more money to be printed and votes being "bought".
Adding to inflation, but increasing the odds of those already in office hanging on.
Voters and Politicians have short memories. And we're stuck with the bill and dimmer prospects.
I expect housing and jobs to finally be addressed for real, or atleast better. And they are linked.
Obama targeted what those elected him wanted. But not what the country really needed. Last election he got dragged more to the middle. It may have been enough to get him a second term ironically, then his true colors will come out again. And if that happens we're back to an inflation discussion which is why I bought a foreclosure as my first single family investment in years. And started nibbling here with PHM.
John and I have not traditionally agreed on politics while agreeing on stocks over the years.
But politics do effect the economy, market, etc and intelligent investors respond accordingly.
So I've explained my take on politics and how that effects some of my outlook and investing, including why I have some PHM.