KORS raised guidance to $.64 for this quarter. However, the expectations have crept up to $.67-.$68 with the high estimate at $.75! Last quarter the high estimate was $.56 and KORS beat by a nickel ($.61) and their sales have accelerated since the last conference call. I actually believe the number will be closer to $.90! But, we cannot have too lofty of expectations. That is why I am going with $.82 with $745 million in revenues. Also, I predict they will raise guidance for fiscal 2013 from $2.67-$2.69 to $2.74-$2.76.
Anyone have a better idea?
I don't know but looking at the past and pulling in a bit;
Last two quarters their sales were +57% & 54.5%
50% for Q2 would be......$799.5
Last year Q2 YOY sales were +74%
And Q2 over Q1 was a striking jump of 28.4% ****************
What happened last year to cause such a jump in what I would think would be a mundane quarter.
July August & September, people are traveling a lot on vacations, etc. so why a 28% jump in three months???
I really wondered if they were stuffing their wholesale channel in the license areas that Sportswear Holdings controls in order to dump that second offering in the fall.
The question,,,,Could this same effect happen again?
If it does we could be looking at maybe 60% increase, $853M
That would be, ahhhh incredible!!
I won't venture an EPS guess, it could blow us away again what with the leverage that same store sales provide.
I just know trading will be, shall we say, ACTIVE on Tuesday.
The machines will be all over KORS.
In regards to the 28% increase from Q1 to Q2...
1. I believe that the July-Sept quarter is where retailers get their fall lines in to stock, so wholesale probably does take a jump that quarter as compared to the summer.
2. I know not a lot of the Kors line lends itself to back-to-school shopping, but they're scoring so well with teens in brand preference, it's got to have some kind of affect. I heard the iPhone carrying cases from Kors were a must have for many teens this year. At $98-$150 a pop, that could add up...as well as whatever else they're talking mom and dad into buying for them.
No! They do not guide higher every quarter. But, this is Q2 and there are only two more quarters remaining in the year, and it would be silly to raise full year guidance after Q3 because it is only one quarter.
The third quarter is their best one of the year, and this year will be the first time they earn more than $1 in a quarter (unless they do it this quarter) and if they earn $.84 as many think that gives them $1.45 for the first half with another $1.05-$1.10 in Q3 giving the firm $$2.50 heading into Q4 and it would be pointless to raise then. We know they will earn around $.75 in Q4 (being conservative) and that would give the firm $3.25 in earnings for 2013! They can easily raise to $2.80 on Tuesday, and be comfortable even if trends switch or the economy tanks.
I believe they raise to $2.75-$2.78 on Tuesday...
My prediction: Revenue $787 million, EPS 84 cents .... but guidance will be the key and I hope their guidance exceeds Wall St. average concensus for next Q and full year.
KORS management is extremely conservative. But, they will raise guidance tomorrow after another stellar earnings report.... Upgrade coming, and an inclusion into the S&P 500. This will be a good end of the year for KORS....
Ok, since revenues have increased 58% 2 quarters ago and 55% last quarter, I was thinking along the lines of a 50% increase to $799M this quarter. You seem to know this stock very well, so maybe I'm being too optimistic. From there, I am guessing...
$320M CGS (40%)
$190M SGA (up from $184M last quarter, trying to be conservative)
$17M Depr (up from $15.98 last quarter)
$100M 37% taxes
Leaving $172M net income, or .84 per share for 204M shares
By the way, using the rest of my figures, it would take $705M of top line revenue to generate the .67 per share forecasted. That would mean the revenue increase, which was 58% and 55% the last 2 quarters would have to drop all the way down to 32% this quarter.
Basically, anything higher than the 32% increase would contribute to the "beat".