The next question that has to be asked is, if it gets to $16.00 can it hold that price for any reasonable time after all the hoopla wears off? Probably not. "Mean regression." Then if it takes a dive below $10.00 can it hold that price? Probably not, "Mean regression" again!
Your missing the point. I am making money off of the volatility. I wanted it to shoot up, as it did. Now if I am lucky the stock will #$%$ out and it will move down big time. But if it moves up I am ok and will turn a profit up to $16.00 or so, as long as it moves down eventually. I make money if it jerks around all day long too! The only time I am hurt is if it moves outside of the range, although I'm good down to $8.00 as I took out a little extra insurance to the down side.