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Isis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sirajd sirajd Jan 18, 1999 4:27 PM Flag

    Takeover speculation?

    thought that Roche had bought Boehringer M. and
    not Boehringer I. last year. In that case, Roche has
    no stake in Isis (yet). Also, Novartis, with its 8%
    stake in ISIS, isnt a threat- remember they own about
    half of Chiron, but have not tried to take the company
    over or control it as far as i know.

    btw, spoke
    with the investor relations people at ISIS- news of
    note is that the interim analysis for Crohn's has been
    completed and two people in ISIS know the results. These
    are being discussed with BI and the plan of action
    will be announced by the end of 1Q. Similarly, Phase 2
    analysis of RA is completed and further development plans
    being discussed with BI, scheduled for announcement in
    April. Given the runup in the stock over the last month
    (when insiders presumably know about the results of
    ISIS2302 for Crohns and RA) bodes well for the stock in my
    opinion.

    if this is old news, I apologize. Would
    also like opinions on the potential of ISIS 2302 in RA
    and Crohn's..

    Siraj

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    • Gary,
      need some clarification on some of your
      comments. When u say "spent $225 mill" on the CMV drug- is
      that the accumulated deficit that ISIS has run up over
      the years. If that is so, that amount was responsible
      for a whole lot of technology and pipeline as
      well.

      Why does the pipeline look very suspect now? What has
      changed recently? Any new news that i may have missed-
      please let me know.

      Interesting to hear that they
      should not focus on drug development. I believe that
      every biotech- unless they want to be a pure research
      house, should evolve from drug discovery, to
      development, to co-marketing, to launching their own products.
      In fact, can u name any biotech company that has
      given a significant return to shareholders (like
      5-20X)without going all the way to commercialization.

      In
      fact, one of the main reasons i like ISIS is their
      utter dislike for selling/renting their Intell. Prop.
      Do u believe this will change now or will Dr.Crooke
      stay focused on this path. BTW, an attractive cpy for
      you (if u believe in outlicensing your core
      technology) will be LIGAND (LGND).

      Would appreciate
      replies

      siraj

    • If it was such a "suicidal route" to bring 2199
      to market, why wouldn't Ciba have pulled the plug on
      it long ago? Why does the pipeline look so suspect
      now? Why is pursuing drug development an "insane
      dream"? TIA.

    • My broker has been very high on CLPA. He has a
      customer who's a doc who says that he knows some of the
      top people there and is very bullish on it. I looked
      at it before the TSNG merger and TSNG was selling
      for 2.5, which is about equivalent to what CLPA is
      selling for today. After looking at their pipeline, I
      couldn't see how they are going to make much money out of
      the indications that they're in late stage trials for
      so I didn't buy it. If I had, I probably wouldn't
      have had the good sense to dump it when it got into
      the 20s.

      The failed trial results almost have
      to be the result of some error. If I had to guess, I
      would say that the actual drug and the placebo got
      mislabeled so that patients in the placebo arm got the drug
      and vice-versa. That's about the only way that you
      can account for the disappearance of polyps in the
      placebo patients.

      What really baffles me is that
      there was so much excitement about a drug to treat an
      indication for which the patient population is at most
      50,000.

    • Actually, in the past 5 months, Kisner has dumped
      over 160,000 shares of ISIS stock, at rock-bottom
      prices. He obviously had been thinking of leaving Isis
      for some time. It was no secret that he and Crooke
      didn't see eye-to-eye.

      My experience at Isis led
      me to the conclusion that this is a beneficial move
      for the company. Kisner lacked an understanding of
      clinical development, hence the poor state of affairs that
      area is in (turnover has been extraordinarily high
      within this organization).

      With one gone, the
      board should exercise its due responsibility and
      relieve Dr. Crooke of his job. Unfortunately, Dr.
      Crooke's ego too often gets in the way of sound business
      strategy. Why else pursue the suicidal route they've chosen
      in getting their CMV product approved (I can't wait
      to see revenue figures from this -- rumor has it
      that they are miniscule)? Why spend $225 million on a
      drug that will only gross about $10 million a year?
      Very odd. Oh yes, it does �prove� antisense (let�s
      hope they can do better than that � though the
      pipeline looks very suspect now).

      The board should
      bring in a CEO that will refocus the company�s activity
      exclusively around drug discovery. They must get out of the
      insane dream of pursuing drug development like big
      pharma. If their science is as good as they preach (and
      it might be), then laser-focus their efforts on just
      that and farm-out promising compounds to larger
      biotech and pharma concerns. This will ensure the highest
      stockholder return.

      Gary Z

    • but if Kisner was leaving because he thought the
      company wasn't going to do well, why would he say he
      isn't going to sell his shares. I guess he would be
      willing to lose a tremendous amount of money just to hide
      bad news on a company he is leaving. I liken this to
      when insiders sell stocks. You don't always know why
      they are selling... if one sells, it may be for
      personal reasons, if several do, it's time to exit. Would
      Kisner have participated in that conference call if he
      were leaving under negative terms? I ask that because
      I'm not sure. Could they have forced him to
      participate and to say the things he did?

    • You score 100%. Never, ever, trust 'em completly.
      Trust is like respect; it must be earned.
      I, too,
      was wondering at the delay in the euro approval of
      the cmv drug. As I recall, it means another nice
      milestone payment.I'm still looking to buy call options and
      another earnings surprise might give the bump to make it
      profitable. Too risky to try to time the release of the
      crohn's data.

    • Not to belabor the obvious here, but do you truly
      believe that Kisner would confide in Nucleo or cyclix his
      true feelings and rationale for leaving? This is the
      number two man in a publicly traded company we are
      talking about. I don't know the extent of your business
      experience, but these issues are purposely sugar coated for
      numerous legal and ego-gratifying reasons. You are
      absolutely correct when you say it is all speculation,
      because you or I (or Nucleo or cyclix) will NEVER know
      the real reason he is leaving. We can only speculate
      based on what we do know. And given what I know about
      the future of this company, it still makes no sense.
      You may call that "spreading doubt"; I call it
      investing with your eyes open. This is a major event at
      this company. Good management is what has defined Isis
      thus far, and the number 2 man leaving is a big deal.
      Isis IR told me that everybody that calls is perplexed
      over this, so I'm obviously not the only one who is
      questioning. I'm not selling, but I'm watching like a hawk.

    • Of course you should question the company, and I
      am far from cheerleading. It is just total
      speculation on your part. I guess if I owned a whole boatload
      of a biotech stock I would be more nervous too. My
      point was that Kisner is accepting a position as CEO, a
      position he would never receive at Isis even if it did
      take off and become quite successful. Why should he
      not take it? It is a CEO position, after all. Waiting
      until Isis became mega-successful would not really help
      him. If he waited, he would still only be offered a
      CEO position. I asked if you were short because many
      times on these threads, people take these types of
      events, and use them to spread doubt. Now if someone with
      first hand info, like nucleotide or perhaps cyclix
      commented that Kisner was unhappy, I would want to know as
      well, but otherwise, it is all speculation that will
      not help us make good decisions regarding the stock.

    • good posts by you on the clpa board.....i may
      take a chance on them if the stock falls below
      3...
      i'm hoping isis will also fall a bit so i can buy
      more
      can you belive it! cisco didn't split (i'm going to
      try to pick up more within the next week)
      good
      luck

    • Read my previous posts- I have owned this stock
      for a number of years, and follow it closely--but not
      blindly. Cheerleading never made me any money. I'm just
      asking the tough questions, that's all. Just because I
      question what the company tells me doesn't mean I'm
      shorting the stock.

    • View More Messages
 
ISIS
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