Tight pricing, decent volume for this stock, still moving along its 10day trendline, churning through march ranges of 2.60-2.90 as march buyers get money back. Something is going to happen soon. It's is either going to explode up or down 20%. considering the news that has recently surfaced regarding missing quarterly results, I think it will go up 20% as opposed to down.
One thing to mention here. Sequans currently has a market cap of $95 million. As you can imagine if you follow this industry that it is highly likely sequans will generate a quarter billion in revenue within the next 2 years. So to trade at 1X revenue your looking at $7.35. A very weak competitor is trading at 1.65 X revenue. This would value Sequans at $12 if they generated 250 million in sales or 62.5 million per quarter.
This must be why we see strength in the face of poor results.
Also like I said last night the street is done looking at what their wimax revenue had done the last year or so. They are done beating the stock down for news they are already aware of. 2013 is here and people are starting to focus on the LTE growth. China mobile is going to be huge for us this year. If we even sell 2-3 million chips this year to china mobile that will be huge. Then we have india that is launching LTE in a big way starting this year as well. Then yesterday we land Verizon. The fact is that we are aligned with some of the biggest names in LTE right now and speaks loud for this little company. Like you pointed out it will not take much to get their revenue really taking off. What happens when their LTE products start really going out the door and earnings start to beat the street numbers instead in the coming Q's. The big pockets will be looking to get back in.
I agree with both your posts. SQNS is a secular growth story tied to 4G LTE and the 4Q results don't really matter much. Investors care about future earnings, not past earnings (especially when it relates to an older technology). The thing that will matter on their 4Q call is their outlook going forward (which I am still fuzzy on a bit in terms of when things will really ramp by quarter in 2013).
Still, even if that is not rosey for Q1 and Q2 it's clear they will get some serious volume shipments by year end and I would think by then it should be at IPO prices at least ($9/ share) this year. So, from current levels, that is still a 2X to 3X return (not bad). I treat this not as a trade or even a stock that I own, but as an "ownership position" Due to the low prices, I was able to accumulate a lot of this company and believe these types of opportunities are truly infrequent.
Finally, the chart still looks good and I do think that this is a hold for me at least until it reaches $5 (and even then I will only sell a little bit based on what I see for this company). Good luck to all longs and enjoy the ride in 2013. At least this thing is finally starting to perk up.