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Starz Message Board

  • crashcom2001 crashcom2001 Jan 6, 2013 9:19 PM Flag



    Other than anticipation of more stimulus in the US, Japan, the EU, China, etc. what else could justify higher asset prices?

    The overall fundamental picture remains bleak for at least the next 6 months. When analysts say they don't see improvement until another half year, that often is just a polite way of saying they don't know when thing will improve. In particular:

    Stagnant Global Growth: With the exception of China, growth in most of the developed world remains modest-to-flat, with ongoing contraction in much of the EU. The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013, Per RBC Capital Markets Chief Economist Tom Porcelli, the PMIs of about 66% of the world are negative, meaning that companies expect lower growth ahead.

    Real Incomes Are Flat Or Falling. For the gory details see here, here, and here. While consumers can draw down savings or take on more debt to temporarily sustain spending, that means economic growth and the revenues of anyone that sells to consumers (or who depends on those who do) will fall.

    Stagnant Corporate Earnings Growth: With global growth weak (especially in the developed world) and the benefits of cost cutting largely exhausted over the past years, top line sales growth isn't happening yet. Until developed world consumers see real wage growth or EM consumers increase spending, growing those sales remains a challenge.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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