This quote is from today's JP Morgan Chase senior equity analyst for alternative energy Christopher Blansett-
" so they now have to step back in and figure out what projects they can get done by the end of 2013 that maybe they normally wouldn't have moved forward with"
According to other sources " The Act extends PTC for such facilities if construction begins before January 1, 2014. The actual date the project is placed in service is not relevant; the key is whether construction begins during 2013."
Since other sources are specific wrt details such as- " it is anticipated that the rules will be substantially similar to analogous rules under the now-expired 1603 cash grant program. In general, under these rules, a taxpayer can establish that it has begun construction of a project either by satisfying a physical work test or a 5 percent safe harbor.", I will assume 'other sources' are correct.
Does Mr Blansett actually follow activity in the alternative energy sector? misquoted? purchased his MBA?
I was going to tell me wife that this analyst does not follow news closely as I do. :-) Maybe it was just a misquote or he has clients who are shorting alterntaive energy space not necessary this company. Look what Gordon Johnson has been doing to fslr. It is more than normal analyst coverage.
But Johnson has been incredibly right over the years, and has thus displayed a rare amount of value-add for a sell-side analyst.
Christopher Blansett is a very nice and decent guy, but here's what's ironic about his "hold" rating: His research report shows $17 million in 2013 EBITDA for BWEN along with $8 million of net cash by year-end. I think those numbers are too high and would be very happy with a $14 million run-rate by year-end plus maybe $2 million of net cash and I think we'll see both. However, the company also has $137 million of NOLs which it will be able to start using in 2014 when the heavy depreciation burns off and I think they're worth around $20 million in cash. Thus, at $2.49/share x 14.1 million shares we have a market cap of $35 million less $20 million worth of NOLs less $2 million of projected year-end net cash which equals an EV of $13 million (using a year-end projected balance sheet) which is less than 1x projected run-rate EBITDA! So why he'd have a "hold" on this company while projecting better numbers than I am is a complete mystery to me.