You should be so lucky to see it down $6! A chance to load up below 50 is like a freebie in this environment.
Call me crazy, but I think we all agree that in all probability, they file in 2004 and get approval and launch in 1H05. The drug reaches $1B by the end of 2008 (this is very conservative for a blockbuster cancer drug; look at Iressa already doing something like $400M. 25% COGS/SG&A $750M/2 or $375M goes to ONXX. Take away $50M for R&D and that leaves ONXX with $325M Tax that at 35% drives $210M to the bottom line. On 35M shares out, that equates to $6/share While biotechs typically get a 35+ multiple discounted back accordingly. For ONXX, I will use a 25x multiple and a 30% discount (this is conservative by both metrics considering this is a biotech and a Phase III drug). That gives me a $52 fair value.
If I give it the standard biotech multiple and discount....$86 fair value and $107 target!!!
Yea, your numbers seem great....Just one thing... your revenue figures are COMPLETELY wrong, for starters, that billion should be in half, for they share it. so, using your REALLY generous figures, the best price that this stock is worth is 25....not much of a "discount" anymore!!!!