Nice overview about ONXX. You hit the nail on the head. There are risks to Bayer if they wait since any good news for Nexavar in new trials or Carfilzomib drive the price the ONXX stock price much higher, especially since Bayer has no stake in Carfilzomib.
ONXX gets a cut of the profits for Regorafenib without shouldering any developmental costs. That could be a significant amount of cash for colon cancer alone, and if Regorafenib show efficacy in other indications, it could drive ONXX up another $10. In the end, I do think Bayer or someone else will end up buying ONXX.
I took sawbucks off ignore since I was wondering what kind of negative spin he would have after the ONXX lawsuit win, and positive Regorafenib data. There is no way ONXX goes back to the $20s even if all the new Nexavar trials fail and Carfilzomib gets delayed. Well, except if the market collapsed and the world went into depression. I do like the narrow range you predicted for ONXX, from the $20s to the $70s or higher by next spring.
"At this point, if you're Bayer, why would you buy this company? Why not wait for six to twelve months for the all the above listed issues to play out?"
Well, there are a lot of reasons not to wait: 1. When all of the issues hanging now (NDA, trials, etc)will turn out to be into ONXX favor, the stock price even without buyout will be in the 60+, so buyout price need to be at least 80+ if not higher. So, buying now get the company at cheaper price (probably &65-$70). 2. Somebody else could come and snatch ONXX and bidding war is not something Bayer (or anybody else besides stockholders) would like. I, personally, don't think that Bayer going to buy ONXX at all,- it made sense long time ago and they did not... So, I'd rather say that ONXX going to see that NDA accepted and will buy another promising compaund, as they did before. Only at this point someone else will buy them. Probably in 1-1.5 years...