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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • ahhaha2 ahhaha2 Nov 3, 2012 12:49 AM Flag

    The CC, Q&A, Cowen

    Philip Nadeau - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division

    As I think about modeling Kyprolis, I just wanted to ask you again, to follow-up on Rachel's question of this idea of bolus versus watch TAC levels in September. Again, before I do anything crazy with my numbers, could you give me some idea of what Kyprolis was selling at September, understanding that it's going to grow off that base in future quarters? And then 2 related questions. When do you expect to give Kyprolis guidance? What do you need to see before you feel comfortable guiding? And what type of peak penetration do you think Kyprolis could ultimately achieve in that third-line setting?
    N. Anthony Coles - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

    So I'll handle the guidance question and then leave the other 2 to Helen. I think we've learned from the best practices of other companies that we really do need a solid track record of experience with a product's performance in the marketplace. I think we've got to -- at least, we're reporting today about 8 weeks' worth of data. So it's clearly too early for us to give Kyprolis guidance. And I think we're going to watch the progress of what so far has been a very exciting launch for us before we commit to when we might provide guidance. So do stay tuned, Phil. I know everyone wants guidance all the time, but we really want to make sure that when we do provide any information, it's to the best of our knowledge and our ability. Helen, can you take the other 2 questions, how they should think about modeling Kyprolis?
    Helen I. Torley - Chief Commercial officer and Executive Vice President

    Yes. Let me start with peak shares. As we mentioned on the call, we estimate that in September, 8 weeks into the approval, into the launch, we have achieved about 10% share of the third-line-plus population. As a reminder, this is a population who have no standard of care today. Patients may get a recycled earlier treatment. If they have, they may get a novel combination. And so we do think there is significant room for growth in terms of market share, although we haven't provided our view on that. But we're 10% today, and we do see that being significantly higher because the patient have limited other options. With regard to the sales in September, we haven't traditionally broken down sales on a monthly basis. But I do think -- if you think about the number of patients that converted from the C-MAP program, it's about 110 patients. You can do the math to estimate -- that was probably between 10% to 15% of the patients in the quarter, if that helps you at all.

 
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