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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • dr.vinmantoo dr.vinmantoo Nov 28, 2012 11:41 AM Flag

    impressive swings

    It is pretty impressive how big the swings in the ONXX stock price are from day to day. $2+ changes up and down are common.

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    • Dr Vinmantoo,
      How much of a competitive threat is pomalidomide? Do you think the recent weakness might be due to results reported by Celgene and concerns about the upcoming likely approval of pomalidomide?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 4 Replies to johnpapas893
      • John,

        I commented on this yesterday, but I am not sure why my post was deleted. Maybe it was because I included a link to the pomalidomide trial. I am switching to an alternate ID and see if that works. In any event, bearofbleecker is on target with his analysis. In the long run pomalidomide shouldn't have an effect on Kyprolis sales for reason Bleecker posted. I will point out that pomalidomide is going for MM patients refractory to multiple treatment regimens including Velcade, so there could be some chance of it taking sales from Kyprolis in this population. However, Kyprolis will have a 6 months or more head start, and patients benefiting from it won't switch, and doctors using it will be more likely to use it for their other patients. In the long run, Kyprolis will be going after Velcade in front-line patients. Given its superior side-effect profile, I am guessing there could also be significant off-label usage of Kyprolis in this patient population. We will see in the next few quarters how it plays out, but I am not too concerned. Having said that, I am still looking to lighten up on ONXX a bit to bank some profits as its big rise has made it too high of a percentage of my biotech portfolio for me to feel comfortable.

      • John,

        I commented on this yesterday, but I am not sure why my post was deleted. Maybe it was because I included a link to the pomalidomide trial. I switched to an alternate ID to see if that works. In any event, bearofbleecker is on target with his analysis. In the long run pomalidomide shouldn't have an effect on Kyprolis sales for reason Bleecker posted. I will point out that pomalidomide is going for MM patients refractory to multiple treatment regimens including Velcade, so there could be some chance of it taking sales from Kyprolis in this population. However, Kyprolis will have a 6 months or more head start, and patients benefiting from it won't switch, and doctors using it will be more likely to use it for their other patients. In the long run, Kyprolis will be going after Velcade in front-line patients. Given its superior side-effect profile, I am guessing there could also be significant off-label usage of Kyprolis in this patient population. We will see in the next few quarters how it plays out, but I am not too concerned. Having said that, I am still looking to lighten up on ONXX a bit to bank some profits as its big rise has made it too high of a percentage of my biotech portfolio for me to feel comfortable.

      • John,

        I commented on this yesterday, but I am not sure why my post was deleted. Maybe it was because I included a link to the pomalidomide trial. In any event, bearofbleecker is on target with his analysis. In the long run pomalidomide shouldn't have an effect on Kyprolis sales for reason Bleecker posted. I will point out that pomalidomide is going for MM patients refractory to multiple treatment regimens including Velcade, so there could be some chance of it taking sales from Kyprolis in this population. However, Kyprolis will have a 6 months or more head start, and patients benefiting from it won't switch, and doctors using it will be more likely to use it for their other patients. In the long run, Kyprolis will be going after Velcade in front-line patients. Given its superior side-effect profile, I am guessing there could also be significant off-label usage of Kyprolis in this patient population. We will see in the next few quarters how it plays out, but I am not too concerned. Having said that, I am still looking to lighten up on ONXX a it to bank some profits as its big rise has made it too high of a percentage of my biotech portfolio for me to feel comfortable.

      • Pomalidomide may replace another Celgene drug, Revlimid. Both are an adjunct to Kyrpolis, not a competitor. The most direct competitor to Kyrpolis is Velcade, since both are protesome inhibitors. Kyrpolis has an advantage over Velcade in that it does not have peripheral neuropathy as a major side effect.

    • I've also noticed it, Dr. The same thing happened in September (and ONXX continued to march to new highs), so I'm not worried. At this point, since buyout seems to be out of picture, I'm trying to decide on exit point. Judging solely by trading pattern it probably will be $97-$105.
      Your thoughts?

      Sentiment: Hold

 
ONXX
124.700.00(0.00%)Sep 30 4:00 PMEDT

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