I have commented on this multiple times over the past week or two but for some freaking reason my posts keep getting deleted was deleted. I had included a link to the pomalidomide trial in some posts. I read someone on a different board had a similar problem and suggested adding a few words at various points throughout my post to make sure the yahoo filters don't think your post is machine generated spam. I deleted the web link and will try again.
The poster Bearofbleecker is on target with his analysis. Long term, pomalidomide shouldn't have an effect on Kyprolis sales for reasons Bleecker had stated. Like Kyprolis, the Pomalidomide submission is going for MM patients refractory to multiple treatment regimens including Velcade, so there could be some chance of it taking sales from Kyprolis in this population. I think the plus side for ONXX is that Kyprolis will have a 6 months or more head start. Patients benefiting from Kyprolis won't switch to Pomalidomide and it is likely that doctors having success with Kyprolis will be more likely to use it for their other refractory MM patients.
If you look at the longer view, it is clear that Kyprolis will be going after Velcade in front-line MM patients. Given its superior side-effect profile, there could also be significant off-label usage of Kyprolis in this population. We will see in the next few quarters how this plays out, but I am not too concerned about it. If Pomalidomide does get approved, there is a possibility that will we see a combination trial with Kyprolis + Pomalidomide at some point in the future.
From my investment perspective, I am still looking to lighten up on ONXX to bank some profits. The big rise in ONXX this past year has made it far too high of a percentage of my biotech portfolio for me to feel comfortable. This means a rebalancing on my part is long past due.