Bearofbleecker is on target with his analysis. The Pomalidomide submission is going for MM patients refractory to multiple treatment regimens including Velcade, so there is a chance it could take sales from Kyprolis. The positive for ONXX is that Kyprolis will have about a 6 months or more head start. If patients are benefiting from Kyprolis, they won't switch to Pomalidomide. It is also likely that doctors having success with Kyprolis will be more likely to use it for their other refractory MM patients.
For the longer view, Kyprolis will be going after Velcade in front-line MM patients. Given that is has a superior side-effect profile, there could also be significant off-label usage of Kyprolis in the front line MM population. The next few quarters will give us a clue on how this plays out. I am not too concerned about it. If Pomalidomide does indeed get approved, will we see a combination trial with Kyprolis + Pomalidomide at some point in the future?
I am still looking to lighten up on ONXX to bank some profits. The very big rise in ONXX this past year has made it far too high of a percentage of my biotech portfolio for my comfort so a portfolio rebalancing is long past due.
I have commented on this multiple times over the past week or two. For some damn reason my posts keep getting deleted. Thinking back, I had included a link to the pomalidomide trial in some posts and someone on a different board had a similar problem. They suggested adding a few words at various points throughout my post to make sure the yahoo filters don't think your post is spam. I deleted the web link and reconfigured my post. I also saved it to a word file before this latest copy paste.