Since Kyprolis and Pomalyst could prove a powerful combo (and there are ongoing studies of Kyprolis+Revlimid with strong preliminary results) wouldn't it make more sense for Celgene to buy Onyx rather than Bayer? Given Bayer's conservative corporate culture, the latter is not very likely to happen. But how about Celgene--any views?
It makes sense to me for either Bayer or Celgene to buy ONXX. It isn't that I want that to happen, just that it makes sense. In the short term, we would get a nice boost by a buyout, but long term it might be better for shareholders for ONXX to remain independent. The best buyout scenario would be if both Bayer and Celgene decided to buy ONXX and got into a bidding war. In any event, I am remain stunned that Bayer didn't buy ONXX as soon as ONXX forced Bayer to cede rights to Regorafenib. Bayer could have had ONXX for $50 a share, but now it will cost them more than twice that figure as a triple digit offer is the floor for a buyout price now.
Good points Vin. This is not the first case of a biotech that could have been had for a relatively low price and later is taken over at a much higher level. There are two studies which in my view will determine whether we ultimately get over $8 billion in valuaton: (i) the head-to-head with Velcade and (ii) the first-line combo with Revlimid. If the first shows non-inferiority and the second confirms the speactular preliminary results then we will go over $100. If, by any chance, the first establishes clear superiority over Velcade then we will go much higher because Kyprolis will take a large share away from Velcade due to the latter's neuropathy problems.