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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • kot882001 kot882001 Jun 29, 2013 3:53 PM Flag

    Buyout scenarios

    Well, now I need to figure out where to deploy all these money...
    Here are 4 possible scenarios how thee things going to turn out:
    1. ONXX rejectt offers outright (Dr Cole is already reach and another few 100M won't change anything for him and he likes to run his own show in pretty sussesful company. So, there is no reason for him to sell unless very-very lucrative offer, which so far is not on the table). Probability:15%
    2. ONXX accept $120 offer. It is highly unlikely that AMGN has not discussed its plan with ONXX management and in no place "hostile takeover" was mentioned, so it very well could be done deal. Probability: 35%
    3. ONXX will demand higher offer. In this case we might get $125-$130. In my view 10B is fair price and I don't think AMGN will go much higher... Probability: 30%
    4. Bidding war starts. Bayer will wake up and maybe some other players (when they see what money we're talking about) will decide to participate. In this case we, probably, will get $130-$135. Probability: 20%

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    • Still think AMGN & ONXX is the best match, but the valuation ($120) will prevent the merger unless AMGN raises the price. As the report said the statement started two weeks ago, so it seems that ONXX has not simply rejected the offer, that means the negotiation has been going for while. Would they like to punch a deal or not all depends how the negotiation goes. Most likely the final deal is somewhere upper 130s.
      120 is obviously low but it is all cash deal. 150 is a little bit stretching, bc the company is yet to be profitable.

    • If this is confirmed Monday, I'd say the likeliest scenario is that (1)The ONXX board rejects the offer. (I think they'd get sued if they didn't.) and (2) AMGN raises the offer and (3) the board ponders the raised offer while inviting Bayer and others to beat it.