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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • johnpapas893 johnpapas893 Aug 13, 2013 10:50 PM Flag

    Maxim Group

    The confusing analysis continues.
    "Yesterday, Maxim Group’s Echo He noted that the Onyx saga could be nearing its end. She writes:
    We believe ONXX is close to an acquisition transaction. On August 7, Reuters reported that Amgen would likely pay $130/share to acquire ONXX. This price is inline with our previously estimated ONXX’s fundamental value…We believe ONXX’s fundamental value is $130-$140, of which 60%-65% is supported by Kyprolis (assuming a launch to the European market in 2015 and peak global sales of $4B)."

    If peak global sales for Kyprolis are assumed to be $4B, then why according to He's analysis is Kyprolis contributing only 60%-65% to ONXX's estimated fundfamental value of $130-$140? Whak kind of a peak- sales multiple is being assumed?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • John, their assumption are usually very convoluted- they trying to predict ROE (return on equity) based upon net profit with various assumption about cost savings as a result of eliminating some administrative costs..
      I'd attempt to analyze (and agree or disagree) these numbers, but at this point what is unclear is how many bidders out there,and, at what point ONXX management will stop waiting for new bids and will be ready to announce decision. (In fact that would be the smartest move they make- just to say "we entertaining initial bid proposal until 8/31". This way at least some boundaries on the process would be set. I read in today's news (i'm getting it from Schwab) that Buyer might also participate in the process....Frankly, I'm already tired of all these "rumors", "unnamed sources", contradictory info...Just get over it!

 
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