What do you think will be the price of Onyx if: (i) ASPIRE is positive (quite likely); and (ii) Oprozomib succeeds in Ph II-III studies?
We might suffer in the short-run, but we will be much better off in the long-run if management does not capitulate and accept a $120 offer from Amgen.
Finally a good question from someone on the board. A big firm analyst on first week of July 2013 had done a detailed report on ONXX. Per the analysis, in optimistic case, value of ONXX was modeled to be between dollar 195 range. It even considered the fact that FOCUS could miss at interim. Furthermore, the report stated that without any value assigned to oprozomib, the value in M&A of ONXX to be dollar 140 or more. Although I noted down these details, I don't recall the analyst who wrote the report as I read several reports a day and follow several companies.
As I have mentioned earlier I feel likely scenario is 130 + CVR.
you won't suffer in the short run if your out of the stock.. If you truly like the long term prospects you should be hoping and praying for no deal so you can buy in below $90 or so.
If your holding onxx I sure hope your hedged in some manner, the risk is high here.