It looks to me like legal expenses and increased marketing expenses led to a larger loss than we expected but that everything is reconfirmed to be on-track with a BLA filing of Raptiva within a month. What surprises me is that even though the loss was bigger than projected this quarter XOMA still stuck with their guidance for the year. This indicates to me that they expect either a decrease in costs, or more likely an increase in revenues.
"Raptiva(TM) is moving forward on schedule in two indications: psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis, and following recent discussions with the FDA, we are on track for the filing of a BLA in psoriasis by year-end," said John L. Castello, XOMA's chairman, president, and chief executive officer. "Genentech has also partnered with Serono S.A. to sell Raptiva(TM) in Europe and certain other non-US markets. Serono has indicated it plans to file for regulatory approval for psoriasis in Europe in the first quarter of 2003.
"This is important to XOMA, because in addition to our profit sharing arrangement with Genentech in the U.S., we are entitled to a royalty on sales in other countries," Castello added.
The above is the only important information released. All else is noise. All Xoma's other technologies are, and will be, leveraged to keep the gravy train rolling for management. Thank God for DNA. I'd be surprised if we hit $10 before year end now, though. Especially if filing comes in last 2 weeks of the Q. It is a LONG way from filing to approval, and those holding for that POTENTIAL outcome should remember past history. From today's BGEN news it appears they still have the fda's ear, at the least. They will lobby HARD to keep Raptiva off market as long as they can. From the wrist slap they received for sending out false info. about Serono's ReBif to MS doc's in marketing materials for Avonex, you should expect the same when(if) Raptiva is ready to hit the street. Xoma is right up against it with $$$ owed to DNA in '05 in relation to Raptiva revenues. Any further delay in this process and they might have to play let's make a deal from a position of weakness. If we do get Q4 filing, fda response can be expected in February(?). BGEN is expected to get approval of Amevive in Feb.-Mar. A full year head start, and that only if Raptiva isn't further deleayed. No one should be thinking $17 for a long, long time.
Heezdedjim, what they said amounts to an excellent news! I have to say , up until yesterday, my fears were that Raptiva filing might be delayed. But today's PR confired filing BY year end. It could be later this month, early or late next month, we do not know. Further, News of early revenue from European sales is new but extremely positive news. I bet there will be delayed reaction to today's PR as the stock so far has not really shown much of an improvement. SOmething is holding it back. As to your other points, for evry negative aspect you raised there is a positive one. All we can do is speculate at this point. When FDA will aprove the drug and whether FDA will be biased towards Biogen blah blah, is purely speculation at this juncture. Just bear in mind that FDA has new Chief Now.
My point is that at $5, XOMA is a gift in light of today's PR. We have all seen how fast the stock can move upon just one positive news alone, such as filing with the FDA. I expect the stock to be around $10 in January next. If filing took place earlier next month, expect $10 by end Dec this year. All my opinion , of course. Do your own DD.