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XOMA Corporation Message Board

  • gfhammond1996 gfhammond1996 Dec 1, 2012 7:19 PM Flag

    gates watcher dcaf gypsum

    Thanks for the good posts!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • ***For POC#3, Varian indicated a prestigious non-profit organization was involved. He also said it would all make sense when the news comes out about who is involved and what the disease is.***

      Gypsum you don't suppose it's going to be the JDRF and the Type 1 trials going on in Switzerland do you? I could deal with that!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to gfhammond1996
      • gf,

        No, I don't think so because the purpose of all the POC's are relatively short term and easy to measure. varian has stated that xoma plans on collecting results for ALL POC's before they decide which indication to pursue, if any. Clearly, xoma is following the lead of anakinra carved through the mountainous terrains in search of an indication they will work on. For example in regards acne vulgaris:

        "TheTNF-α inhibitor infliximab and anakinra are investigational drugs in these severe forms and show promising effects"

        11/7/2012 audio varian estimated POC #3 announced in 4-6 weeks which puts the announcement at 12/5 to 12/19/2012.

        did you hear in the 11/7/2012 xoma audio varian mentions aceon had sales of $150M outside the u.s.? Is this the servier version he is talking about? varian also said that the it is a relatively new product which is showing good sales growth as time goes on.

        xoma should get NDA review for aceon combinations by the beginning of 2014. xoma has enough cash to get through 2014. If xoma could muster 10M+ through 2014 in aceon it would be significant help.

        In the same 11/7 audio, varian estimates tests of xmeta, and xmets should be complete with primates in 12-18 months which puts us at the latest mid 2014.

        xmetd should be ready for trials by mid 2014 also.

        Hopefully, xoma can auction off license/development agreements before the end of 2014 with some up front money too. at the very least it will indicate promising drugs.

        Maybe the question is what if? What if one or more of the poc's shows enough promise to continue? What should xoma do? How would xoma get through a phase 3 POC trial?

      • gf,

        No, I don't think so because the purpose of all the POC's are relatively short term and easy to measure. varian has stated that xoma plans on collecting results for ALL POC's before they decide which indication to pursue, if any. Clearly, xoma is following the lead of anakinra carved through the mountainous terrains in search of an indication they will work on. For example in regards acne vulgaris:

        "TheTNF-α inhibitor infliximab and anakinra are investigational drugs in these severe forms and show promising effects"
        [Do a search on the above. Look at the box with pictures in it at the top, the fellow with the blue shirt and white collar. That is some severe acne.]
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
        11/7/2012 audio varian estimated POC #3 announced in 4-6 weeks which puts the announcement at 12/5 to 12/19/2012.

        did you hear in the 11/7/2012 xoma audio varian mentions aceon had sales of $150M outside the u.s.? Is this the servier version he is talking about. varian also said that the it is a relatively new product which is showing sales growth as time goes on.

        xoma should get NDA review for aceon combinations by the beginning of 2014. xoma has enough cash to get through 2014. If xoma could muster 10M+ through 2014 in aceon it would be significant help. In the same 11/7 audio, varian estimates tests of xmeta, and xmets should be complete with primates in 12-18 months which puts us at the latest mid 2014. xmetd should be ready for trials by mid 2014 also. Hopefully, xoma can auction off license/development agreements before the end of 2014 with some up front money too. at the very least it will indicate a promising drug.

        Maybe the question is what if? What if one or more of the poc's shows enough promise to continue? What should xoma do? How would xoma get through a phase 3 POC trial?

        btw, let's say the acne vulgaris trial fails and xoma has a choice. Which do you think xoma would announce first, the acne vulgaris top line results that fail, or the POC#3?

    • gf,

      did you listen to the 11/17/2012 webcast? I have in my notes where varian said that aceon sales are $150M outside the u.s. He also said, if I recall correctly, that it was a new market and has been growing steadily . unfortunately, the NDA review will take 12 months - which is ridiculous. xoma has indicated they can get through 2014 with the money they have which means that aceon SHOULD come on the market at the beginning of 2014. It would be highly significant to xoma if they could muster 10-30M. In addition, by the time of aceon approval to 6 months longer, xoma may have their xmet test completed on monkeys at which time xoma feels they will have enough answers to auction xmet licenses to big pharmas. There may be a chance for xoma to clear all the hurdles with money to spare.

      If one of the POC's comes in positive, Katie bar the door. I know it seems that acne vulgaris is a long shot, but don't forget anakinra showed 'promising results'. acne vulgaris can take many horric forms. one example I saw was a very large nodule that covered almost the whole side of the face from cheek to above jawbone. Of course if I were a betting man, I would not take this bet. I feel like a lot of other xoma investors feel the same way. The point being that ANY good news on any of the POCs will have a significant impact even though xoma indicates they will not act on any poc until all results are in. The significance being though that a positive result - given the particular choice of trials by xoma and intended speedy trial times - will be very much like a guarantee of future revenue.

 
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