Fourpanelbeach and other "fundamentalists" come in
Fourpanelbeach and those who believe fundamental analysis equals P/E, P/B, etc., do you really naïve enough to think value investing is that easy by just looking at couple of ratios?
I don’t believe technical analysis or any naïve fundamental analysis, which are based on matrixes. Real fundamental or value investing depends on understanding the industry and the specific company’s strategy other than the numbers. In return, the future earning or free cash flow estimates are more accurate than what the market thinks.
I wish someone can post his or her research about the future Chinese real estate industry and XIN’s position in it and justification why XIN can keep its earning power for the next 10 years. Please not to yelling with the ridiculously low current P/E. Remember, you may buy low P/E stocks without any research but still make money. But that’s because you are lucky.
I have seen no evidence that XIN is having any more trouble obtaining financing, at equal rates, than other developers - they are more than large enough to finance the developments they undertake. Plus, Did you know about half of local gov't revenues in china come not from taxes, but from selling (actually 99 year leasing) land for real estate development? You think the officials in all the 2nd and 3rd tier cities want to kill that gravy train? Plus housing prices have not bubbled nearly as much in the smaller cities, putting XIN in a more favorable position than others. Plus fundamentals do matter - there is no chinese real estate developer that has better value relative to share price by every possible fundamental measure of earnings, growth, or book value.
"I wish someone can post his or her research about the future Chinese real estate industry and XIN’s position in it and justification why XIN can keep its earning power for the next 10 years."
Your asking for other to do your research and then telling what type of research you want...... I suggest you get of your a** and go to China and do your own DD for the next 10 yr. projected analysis. Gees; what some people want you to do for then ; maybe they should cash the checks for you and just give you their money too...... Go to China; a growth oriented thriving country that will take over as first place leader in the world economical developing countries. Which has taken over as the main mfg. giant ,whos population will all want a chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and good educations for their youth and have a growing healthcare base for their people. Now with all that said ; Do you think the real estate market is going to be cheaper, and less utilized or is it going to grow with the populations expansion of financial disposable income for 2nd tiered cities? Are the people going to want less housing and move into shacks or are they as any other growing society going to want bigger, better for themselves and their families? - Simple common sense tells us XIN will grow accordingly, yet alone the financials, div paid out, P/E and income already reported. Now is the potential for XIN fairly priced at 2.00PPS or should you go somewhere else.......and want people to do your DD? You can only o by the reported financials, scams are not going to be posted but found out over time, - When you figure out a lock garranteed profit based company for the next 10 years come back here and post it for us to all make money, and make it prices as a $2. pennie stock.
I don't think anybody knows what is going to happen with the Chinese real estate. A lot of this depends on government policy, and broader macro trends. I think the XIN management has done a very good job so far of navigating the difficult regulatory situation they are in. The keep minting cash and growing, and this quarter's numbers are likely to show even more of the same. That, and the company is buying back shares and paid a special dividend, reflects confidence on the part of management who are in a much better position than any of us to judge the situation. As recently as the last conference call management said they wanted to wait to see if sales continued at a healthy pace before instituting a dividend or share buyback. Well, it looks like they got the numbers they were looking for. Not saying this is without risk, of course it is. But given the fundamentals, the risk/reward looks very good at these levels.