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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • barnardjohnthird barnardjohnthird Aug 5, 2011 10:27 AM Flag


    Ok, we have definitely entered silly season. I know there has been a lot of discussion on this board about fundamentals and metrics for valuation. The funny thing is people are using historical data for the most part.

    While XIN is severely undervalued under any historical data measure, do people not realize that earnings are coming in a few days, and XIN is expected to report net income in excess of $20 million?

    It's stated plainly in the Q1 report, and the company's 6/3 update suggests sales are on pace. People, this is more than double net income from Q2 in 2010, and it's going to make the EPS and other numbers look even more absurd. And if they have bought back any stock it's going to be even more so.

    Net income guidance for the year is $75 million, where we are looking at earnings of about $1 per share. Net income for Q1 was only $11.65 million. They have guided net income per quarter of greater than $20 million for the next three quarters.

    Again, even assuming they miss targets (which I doubt they will, and if they do it should be by a small amount), the metrics people are talking about now are going to be a thing of the past. Instead, we will be looking at a stock with about $1 earnings per share. Q/Q revenue and net income figures that will look fantastic for any stock, let alone trading at a severe discount to book (again, even if they miss), and share price to sales and income and every other metric is going to simply require investors and funds take notice, market collapse notwithstanding.

    I was very happy to buy more this morning. Good luck to all here, at least some people are aware of this one.

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