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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • stan.ackman stan.ackman Mar 13, 2012 10:38 AM Flag

    Bad News for XIN

    Today's volume is too heavy. Almost every time XIN's daily volume goes up significantly, it is a signal of short-term reversal of direction. XIN may see a correction in the next few days. Some market manipulators may have made about 16% return by lifting the stock from $2.33 to $2.70.

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    • What I said is proved right. XIN has pulled back about 5% in the last two days. It could pull back even more. Once again, temporary selling after a big volume day and buy back later on could yield higher return than simply holding the stock.

      The reason why XIN is so volatile is so many investors in XIN play this swing trading way. We still lack true long-term institution investors.

    • XIN "minimum" should be $6.59 a share, and hopefully more.

    • Jeff, I got part of what I mean. The reason I said it is bad is just we have to see a little "bad" movement after a winning trend. If the volume was not that high. We may continue to see a uptrend without stop. Again, I agree XIN is still a strong buy no matter whatever technical indicator shows.

    • Agreed, $0.26 forward and $0.10 back is not a reversal or bad news, it's consolidation above resistance (which is probably now support).

    • What he said.

      It went down a dime like I predicted?

      Wow, impressed my ownself.

      Probably go down a nickel or so again tomorrow before another move up, but who cares about the daily trends if you've been holding XIN for 6 months to a year? The long term trend is up, up, UP!

    • <<.... it is a signal of short-term reversal of direction....>

      So it goes down a dime
      I'm ok with that

      bad news for me would be a "yearly" dividend announcement or something to that effect

      • 1 Reply to catnippss
      • 2.65 is the strongest resistance has been for over a year. The fact that it had to break that and it's at it's 52 week high requires high volume. If you have any history investing or even trading stocks. Don't go telling yourself that a pullback is guaranteed. Stocks that bust 52 week highs typically are tougher to time than falling knives that keep busting the lows. XIN was oversold at $2.00 and IPO'ed too high at $17. XIN very well might be setting up for a new long term 3 year trend back to double digits.

        The same holds true for the market. I am net short this market and trying to time a top. In the meantime I am getting hammered. My 5 longs have been my only saving grace. My 9 shorts are getting hammered. Good luck longs, those who stuck it out and did the reserach deserve this run in XIN.

    • I don't think Stan's point is unreasonable. As a matter of technical analysis, he is making a valid point about historical price action. In the move up from January, it was on relatively low volume.

      There are two points one might make to disagree, (1) that it is possible once XIN has cleared major resistance that more volume will return to the stock and therefore the up-on-big-volume phenomenon he describes will be a thing of the past, (2) that clearing major resistance requires above-average volume so it is not unusual to see it today. I think the second answer is likely the case, and the first answer may be the case, but only time will tell.

    • Huh? Nope, no correction that big. They will announce the dividend, and give confidence in XIN at the conference, and if they do another buyback, we get over $3.00, and stay there.

    • I don't see much evidence of that since December. Don't think there's much reason to think it will reverse this time--especially given the fact that we hit a new 52-week high, have no resistance, and expect the dividend announcement in the near-term.

    • ............did your mama drop you on your head

 
XIN
4.84-0.06(-1.22%)Jun 24 4:02 PMEDT