XIN is expected to announce .25 per share for Q1 2012. In Q1 2011 XIN reported .16, which means year over year growth per ADS share of 56% growth. When China is expected to grow by 8% in 2012, that just shows that XIN is doing better than the overall economy in China.
XIN may, or may not, announce the dividend by end of Q1, but either way, they will not be paying out until Q2 2012, so cash/equivilants will go up for Q1. XIN should be closer to 500 million ($6.84 per ADS share). Now with a quarterly dividend, more investors, institutional investors, and mutual funds will now "look at" XIN.
After the increase in profit and cash/equivilants in Q1 XIN share price will get to $5.00 a share. Then institutional investors and mutual funds will then start to buy into XIN, bringing the share price to $6.00 a share by end of June.
Xin is undervalued but when it reaches 6 is simply not knowable. Who can say why the market picked this time to shoot the stock up?? All you can do is spot undervalued stocks and get there before the market does.