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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

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  • stan.ackman stan.ackman Apr 4, 2012 3:28 PM Flag

    All I know is that ......

    Hi hmmm26, I have to disagree when you said it is not the case for XIN. It really could be. Most people here feel the cheap price of XIN is mostly because of fraud risk. It is not true. Certainly, the Chinese fraud fear has impact on XIN's price, but primarily the cheap price coming from the uncertain Chinese real estate industry. Long before the Chinese fraud fear hit the market back to middle of 2010, XIN was already traded below P/E of 3. At that time, several actual Chinese fraud stocks in other industries actually performed very well.

    So, the market's major fear for XIN is its ability to keep its earning in the next 5 years. In the reality, after I have done my research, the best days for Chinese developers are over. Competition will be more intense in the future. Industry consolidation will drag down the whole industry's profitability. Everybody will be affected, just by different extent. Then, XIN's earning will shrink. The question is whether the earning will be reduce by half, 90%, or even losses.

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