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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • connor.jin connor.jin Apr 18, 2012 9:54 PM Flag

    Why is everyone so inpatient?

    When you buy each one share of XIN, you buy $9 book value and $1.4x EPS. Why do you care its current EPS? Now we are all convinced that this company is real.

    Only question left is, just let the market speak and let technicals guide you to maximize your investment return.

    See $5 after Q1 earning, and a 5-bagger in 2012.

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    • Want to apologize ahead of time for all the caps. Yahoo doesn't let you bold or italicize, so capitalization is the next best thing.

      Stan and I are on the same page.

      I like that hmmmmmm is challenging XIN's credibility in a logical way. Makes it safe for all of us when we reveal truth through logical discussion.

      Another point hmmmmmm, is that those creditors that longpoint(longleaf? forgot the name already) paid WHERE PART OF THE FRAUD. Longpoint was just returning money that WAS NEVER THEIRS IN THE FIRST PLACE. It was the local banks money they lent to them so they could APPEAR real. They COULDN'T pay that money out in dividends because it was the local banks cash. See? Does it all make sense?

      Frauds DO NOT hand out cash, ESPECIALLY quarterly because that money is in your hands and gone forever. Frauds are in the business of TAKING cash, not GIVING it.

      Hmmmmm, make this case for me. 12 million a year for the next 3 years - 36 million. How does a fraud benefit from giving that out?

    • hmmm, I agree the assertion that Tom is not the real CFO in XIN. He is just the top investor relation officer. But this type of practice is very common for American listed Chinese companies. So, the chance is that Tom does not pay sufficient attention to XIN's financial credibility and he does not have the ability to test XIN's financial credibility. Even so, we still cannot say XIN is a fraud.
      Basically, we need to disregard Tom as a factor in determine whether his company is a fraud.

      Look at my other thread, you should know XIN's accounting in 2011 is more aggressive than some of its peers. Market understood it. That's why XIN's current earning is discounted so much. Again, this accounting practice is totally legal, so nobody should accuse XIN a fraud according to this.

    • Longtop was a successful fraud. How do we know this? Their market cap was 2.4 billion

      XIN's market cap?
      255.99 million. I think it's safe to say if XIN were really a fraud, they were the question you ask yourself - why start issuing dividends NOW, especially after already spending millions in share buybacks? Those action are very anti-fraud for a company worth only 255.99 million.

    • Longtop definitely had the capability of paying out $12 million a year in dividends. Maybe by doing that they only would've gotten away with it for 5 years instead of 6 years, but I guess what I'm saying is that $12 million's too little a figure to truly test whether the $487.6 million figure's correct or not.

      If Xin's got only $200 million cash, it could go on paying $3 million quarterly dividends for a long time.

      Remember, frauds don't start out as frauds. They're real companies that usually do well for a while. Then they miss a quarter or two, and they start to change the books a little -- just for a quarter, then they'll put the money back -- except that doesn't always work out.

      In fact, the employees of frauds -- even high officers, even members of the board of directors -- at least claim not to know the company was even a fraud. Of course, there's a committee made up of outside directors called the Audit Committee and it's their job to make sure fraud never starts. It's hard to imagine that the Audit Committee wouldn't know, especially if the fraud got bigger and bigger and bigger, agree?

    • Connor, you mention a $1.40-ish EPS number. That's a 2012 estimate, correct? Is it, by quarters starting w/ 1Q: .25, .37, .41, .37?

      I ask only because that's the numbers of the only analyst that etrade and yahoo quote with estimates.

      I'm trying to figure out if there's really only one analyst, period, who has forward earnings estimates. I'm hoping we can find some other analyst opinions to strengthen our confidence in those numbers. I mean, if it's just one 25 yr old kid, 6 months out of B school, who's offering numbers, that's info we should probably know.

    • The company is real? Who said the company wasn't real. Now if you're
      saying a Chinese company that pays a dividend will not be accused of
      cooking the books, or halted? You better do your homework, because it is happening. Just an example you might remember.

    • Obviously if I KNEW this was a five bagger it would be nuts to trade it at all. Because I don't KNOW it's a five bagger I take some profits and let the rest run. That way if the worst happens I still make money and if the best happens I make more.

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