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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • staccani staccani Aug 13, 2012 3:28 AM Flag

    The party will be over soon

    1. Company buy backs
    2. Excellent financial results
    3. Massive undervaluation
    4. Dividends distribution
    5. Booming sales. Housing market rebound/recovery
    6. Excellent long term prospects along with China unanizzation and middle class expansion and economic growth
    7. High insideres' ownership
    8. Institutuon accumulation
    9. RMB strenght and lomg term appreciation
    The party is going to be over soon, we will not be able to buy XIN at 1/ 3 of its net cash pocition and just over current year earnings for much longer

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    • As much as I agree with most of your points one has to keep in mind that XINs fundamentals have always been outstanding, and out of line with the stocks valuation.

      The excellent quarter might possitively impact risk/benefit models and so encourage some buyers, however in the case of big institutional holders this is unlikely due to the low volume, but overall thats not where the issue lies.

      The issue is confidence, be it the perceived fraud risk or bubble. The only way to overcome this is by years of good results and continous payment of the dividend/regular buybacks, or perhaps a raise of the dividend.

      My guess would be that the stock will plateu somewhere in the low 3$ range and then come back down to 2.5-2.7 until next quarter. 4 or even 5 is very optimistic at the present point in time.

      Im long btw. and think this is a buy with the long term in mind.

    • You might be surprised. XIN may stay at 1/3 valuation for a while. But, as long as they do, the company can continue to buy back shares at low rates. I just hope we can get to, and stay above $3.00 a share.

      • 1 Reply to jeffreybul23
      • well 1/3 fair value would mean USD 10, at the moment. Only net financial position would justify USD 6 a share, ie without considering earnings. If this company is legitimate as I believe, we will make serious money here and the longer the share price will stay at these levels, the more we will be able to accumlate, the more serious this money will be.

    • Good list.

      Your #9 is an under-appreciated benefit over time for all China stocks.

      • 2 Replies to hmmm26
      • RMB, in my opinion, may depreciate against USD over time.

      • thanks, I should have done a spell check before postig it, though:-) Below the corrected list:
        PS hhmmmm, why are you planning to sell XIN on Monday? Don't you fear that you might miss a sudden run up and be forced to buy at much higher prices?

        1. Company buy backs
        2. Excellent financial results
        3. Massive undervaluation
        4. Dividends distribution
        5. Booming sales. Housing market rebound/recovery
        6. Excellent long term prospects along with China urbanization and middle class expansion and economic growth
        7. High insiders' ownership
        8. Institutuon accumulation
        9. RMB strenght and long term appreciation
        The party is going to be over soon, we will not be able to buy XIN at 1/3 of its net cash position and just over current year earnings for much longer

 
XIN
2.46+0.1150(+4.90%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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