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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • hmmm26 hmmm26 Sep 19, 2012 10:09 PM Flag

    How To Double XIN's Price

    On another thread, an excellent post was made by DoubleJ that I think deserves more publicity. IMHO, if XIN were to take his advice, its price would at least double. He wrote:

    "How about releasing the Chinese version of the financial documents, announcing a cash audit, offering a $.50 per ADR share one-time dividend, a buyout of Blue Ridge and all expense paid trips for a dozen analysts (with tours of construction projects) to the next quarterly conference. I think this stock would explode."

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    • Good thread, posters. I just read up and learned tons of cool stuff about China today.

      I've been to China once, but not since '98, shortly after the HK handover. I spent a couple weeks in Guangdong, but I didn't seem to notice quite so many late night massage places or foot massage places (I had no idea about the barber shop thing), and since I was single then, it wasn't for lack of looking.

      Has the culture loosened up somewhat in the last 15 years with respect to vice, or was I just wearing western cultural blinders?

      • 1 Reply to hmmm26
      • Hmmm, China is just so large and diverse. Culture in southern city like Guangzhou can be very different from that in central city Zhengzhou, XIN's primary market. Apparently, there is general trend towards a more open marriage. Such a trend, in my opinion, is largely caused by the combination of a wider wealth gap and a lack of common moral standard.

        It is amazing to see how China grew in the last 20 years. Seriously, it was amazing. China used to have much lower income per capita compared with India 20 years ago. Now, it is the other way. I personally experienced how much people in China generally get better-off in the last 20 years. The difference largely aligns with China's GDP growth in the last 20 years. Now, China becomes a middle income country with a large income gap. It would have to need a major structural change in China in order to make China to a high income country. Now, I just do not see the direction of a real structural change.

    • well picked up some xin and halliburton today

    • I like the spunk.

      I will go back to front to switch it up a bit.

      I think the SEC finally formulated solid regulations effectively “outlawing” paid road shows for analysts. This has been an on-going issue in the investment community going back to the 60s. There are a couple frauds with a component including the company or the CEO “buying” favorable analyst opinions. Therefore, people tried to tweak the rules for years. I thought post-Enron the SEC finally got clear regulations in place so everyone knew where the bright line was.
      Regardless of the regulations, this would be a big code of ethics violation at all the reputable firms.
      Finally, for the analysts I know, unless there is a stripper named Bambi willing to call them Studmuffin for the evening, they would be angry being forced to go to China to look at some buildings.

      The selective buy out of BR is possible and a good idea, just real complicated. There are a few law firms whose practice focuses on suing companies doing these types of transactions. As, there is no safe harbor and for some it just feels slimy.

      Here is a little different take on the special dividend. The special dividend takes away about 21 % of earning valuation on the first iteration. Therefore, unless you believe a special dividend is will raise permanently the company’s valuation at least 21 %, it is not a prudent decision.

      I like the spunk. Clearly, we need something to light the fuse that will become the capstone of the Mogul Caseysxyz campaign.

      • 2 Replies to caseysxyz
      • I fully endorse the Bambi the stripper plan, but I need an explanation of the 21% earnings valuation decrease you're talking about.

        A 50 cent dividend would decrease cash by about $35 million, so from $605 to $570. But that's only 40% of the cash line increase from Q1 to Q2, the announcement of which didn't increase XIN's share price at all.

        Even if I'm misunderstanding something on this point and there is a 21% price decline, remember that dividend money would already be in our pockets, so we wouldn't need to offset that 21% decrease in order to "break even".

        If the stock price declined, even without recovery, all that 21% would've done was "switched places" from being a part of our stock price, to being cash in our pockets -- an excellent exchange if ever I've seen one.

      • "Finally, for the analysts I know, unless there is a stripper named Bambi willing to call them Studmuffin for the evening, they would be angry being forced to go to China to look at some buildings."

        If you're in China and walk down just about any street, you can't avoid walking past a large number of red-light "barber shops" that have no hair on the floor and none of the usual effeminate males standing around with scissors, walking past red-light "massage parlors" that for some inexplicable reason are only open late at night and always have seem to have scantly clad underage girls sitting by the window, or staying at hotels where you're called on the phone every few minutes to ask whether you need "service," extra pillows, or whatnot. Bambi is one of the key features of traditional, value-rich, conservative Chinese culture; you can find her at all of these places; and for less than $10, she will call you "Studmuffin" if you first pronounce it for her really slowly.

    • I remember when folks wrote that if Xin would pay a dividend and do share buybacks that the stock would double. I don't know when this stock will make the big move. But I don't mind taking my 6% while I wait. When the stock does move it won't be because of anything written here.

    • Highly doubt it. What's the dividend now? Close to 6%? Did it help? No. Would a one time .50
      help? No. Remember in the spring when I mentionned Pwrd. You people just want to make a quick
      buck, you'rer not interested in the company itself, or you'd want them to pay down debt imo. Back to
      PWRD, they announced a special $2.00 one time dividend. I think in the past they did it one other
      time, but I could be wrong. The stock jumped a good $4 on the news, and soon as it was paid, went
      down $6 from the high of the announcement. It's only about $1 different off that low, even though
      the markets are at 5 year highs . Talk about the high volume on XIN today, but the stock is down .02 so looks like there was just as much dumping. At least Hmmm you don't say you're a 'long'.

      • 1 Reply to shelly_showman
      • Yeah, that's how Special Dividends always work, but that's a good problem to have: Do I sell my shares at the massively increased share price on the day before the ex div date (I think, but you know what day I mean) and lose out on the dividend, or do I pocket the dividend and take my chances with the day after selloff?

        It's a great problem to have: which of the two piles of profits would you prefer, Pile A or Pile B?

    • Let them buy 6 million shares directly from Blue Ridge, and then offer a nice big dividend. It would be 6 million fewer shares that they would need to pay out too.

      We have to remember that the dividend expense goes down each quarter, as they buy back more shares. They will eventually be able to increase the dividend rate on existing shares from .04 a quarter to .05 a quarter, or .20 a year from .16 a year now.

      Again, if we wan't to dream big, they should offer $1.00 a share dividend, right after buying up 6 million shares from Blue Ridge. That would be sweet!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
XIN
4.01Jul 22 4:03 PMEDT

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