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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

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  • lizhang200 lizhang200 Oct 1, 2012 9:44 AM Flag

    Beijing Land Purchase Is Sigficant

    Aside from the obvious potential for nice profits, I think the Beijing purchase and the purchases in New York and Reno are significant in that they could be instrumental in changing the market's perception of XIN at a fundamental level and, thus, could be the first real steps in leading the market to price XIN as it prices other developers. When I mention the market's perception of XIN, I, of course, mean perception of fraud risk. Because XIN is a Chinese company, because its numbers look a bit "too good" to some, because of its GAAP accounting methods, and so on, many investors assume there's a high probability of fraudulent behavior; thus, they refrain from investing in XIN, which partially explains the extremely low PPS that we observe. These purchases help to combat the perception of fraud because (in the case of the US purchases) they show that XIN is willing to operate in environments in which they'll have to show more transparency and because (in the case of all three purchases) they show that, regardless of the exact amount of cash that XIN has on hand, they definitely have a lot of cash on hand.

    Given the impact of these purchases, the fact that next dividend payout and earnings report are a little over a month away, the ongoing buyback being carried out by XIN, and the increases in institutional purchases over the last few months (with the giant exception of Blue Ridge), I think there's a decent probability that the next month and a half could be quite positive for XIN's stock price. Most individual investor attempts to influence the publicization of news for XIN are probably ineffective, but perhaps this would be a good time to try anyway. The Reno purchases, for example, were scarcely publicized; I found mention on FoxReno and the Reno Gazette Journal, but didn't find mention in any other English publications (although I didn't look all that hard). Perhaps it would be beneficial if this purchase were brought to the attention of the same organizations and individuals that published articles regarding the New York and Beijing purchases. Also, perhaps because it's still early-going, there haven't been any articles mentioning the potential impact of these three purchases on the perception of fraud. There are a number of individuals and groups on Seeking Alpha who have written positively about XIN in the past (e.g., Blake Morgan, ZetaKap, Jared Sleeper, Acorisk, Kevin Quon, Kapitall, David Merkel). Perhaps they would be more inclined to put out articles assessing the extent to which these purchases "legitimize" XIN if they received a bit of encouragement to do so from their readership.

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