Something totally unexplained going on with this stock...
It would not be prudent to be all cash. The debt to equity was 54 % at 11, which is a little rich. So, let's assume they did 40 % on the new deals. That would be 100 million more debt and 150 million out of cash. With a 200 million operating cash flow that leaves room for one more good deal this year or two small deals. If all the announced projects are in the 25 % to 30 % GP range all is good. With US in quantitative easing while China is fighting inflation it would make sense to borrow as much as possible in the US and pay cash in China.
I am coming to the opinion the valuation has nothing to do with the sellers but rather the buyer. The valuation is based on the dividend and not on the earnings. The valuations become insane when you look at any other measure. The problem is there is not any buyers willing to buy large chunks below a 5 %. I think the buyers are a bunch of mainland Chinese that are totally stoked with a 5 % return. Whose to blame them after staring at 30 % declines in the A share market.
There are only couple things that will move the price to a decent valuation. Some active institutional finding the stock as part of a core strategy. Or, someone showing up and buying the company.
There is not going to be some earnings miracle that will rocket it into orbit. The company is sound and working its plan. The only thing sexy about is its in China. Sometimes the market is just stupid.
teknowiz, all the mysteries about XIN make it very risky. It has huge up and down side risk. If you followed XIN long enough, you will notice in the past XIN has beaten estimates most times. However, the stock typically only moved up in the first two days, and then dropped back to the prior price levels. Casey and Acorisk already gave you some of their explanations. They are all possible. However, nobody can say these explanations are surely the real reasons behind XIN's performance. I can add reasons such as China real estate bubble risk, China economy risk, etc.
Overall, it is your own choice to decide whether to take that risk. One thing you have to bear in mind is that XIN may not to move up significantly in the next 24 months.
Funding was not addressed in the press releases. The common advice in disclosure is to only disclose changes. It follows then the funding was similar to previous deals. Otherwise you are helping the lawyers.