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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • stan.ackman stan.ackman Oct 10, 2012 10:53 AM Flag

    If I told Everybody I Spoken with Gurnee for 30 Minutes

    Would anybody believe? By the way, it was on the phone.

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    • I think people all knew why you are here, I'm not going to waste any time on you anymore.

    • I don't see why not. I absolutely believe that board poster Acorisk spoke to him in May.

      What did you talk about?

    • I emailed him earlier in the year, and I got two immediate responses, so I know he does communicate with investors. I don't know why others have such a hard time getting in contact with him. I'd love to hear about the conversation.

    • Just realize I mistype spoke to spoken.

      • 1 Reply to stan.ackman
      • Yes, as Hmmm said, I have spoken with Gurnee. Info in discussion consistent with info on general releases / communication.

        I believe the biggest issues facing this stock:
        1) Unknown in terms of volume of Blue Ridge share sales (and what is driving the sales - windup, investor cash out, diversification? I understand the fund originally had Blue Ridge with another person (? was it the guy on the board of XIN -- it was a Chinese National Financier) -- [does anyone remember his name -- ? Jason Tang or similar?] --- Anyway,
        - My understanding is that they started the Blue Ridge I fund together ($300 million China Fund) -- the one that invested in XIN - with, as of last spring, about 13 million shares, at what I believe is a basis of $1.75/share.
        - Further, that they (Tang and Blue Ridge) are not necessarily seeing eye to eye anymore... (2nd hand info) -- not clear on mechanics of fund or potential windup --- I placed call to Blue Ridge, but have not received an answer.
        - (there is another Blue Ridge China Fund - about 1.5 billion, that started a year or so later - it is NOT the XIN investor)

        2) Timing on when the market normalizes around this one - low float and low volume makes it tougher to attract broad institutional investors. Blue Ridge sales should help here, as more shares will be free moving and have a $2.75 to $3 basis

        3) CEO likes being on the NYSE and also likes expansion of business model -- he started from a real estate operations perspective.

        4) Longtop - stock with issues - had Gurnee on committee -- I believe it is a real story that CEO and bankers were working together, and that further, since Gurnee went through this once - won't happen again on his watch (also E&Y and others are doing hands on watch from the system verifications of cash.

        5) Now with US assets in place, the China Sovereignty / Legal issue decreases for me as US assets are available to attach if there is any need.

        6) Long term technical trends suggest we're at a place where this stock can rise based on multi-year market consolidation and selling of losses from the early days. Once BR sales clear, I believe it will be smoother sailing.

        Based on all above info, I am heavily long in this stock & expect it to rise over the next few months -- I think we will see some interim voloatility - including, for example - potential price decrease in the next few days with lots of $2.50 calls expiring next week, potential increase with earnings announcement in a few weeks & unknown timing / effect - related to the stock buy-back and the Blue Ridge sales.

        Hope that helps.
        - acorisk

2.50+0.20(+8.70%)Dec 19 4:09 PMEST

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