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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • jeffreybul23 jeffreybul23 Oct 10, 2012 1:39 PM Flag

    Cash easier to account for.

    With management paying out $250+ million to buy more land this year, or about $3.42 per share, that will give XIN a new cash/equivilant per share amount of around $4.87.

    The cash/equivilant per share won't change that much until year end, due to most monies for the new land not being due until Q4.

    If the company did buy 2+ million shares in Q3, and buy at least another 2 million shares in Q4, their cash/equivilants per share should still be over $5.00 by end of 2012. They should also exceed $1 billion in assets/capital by end of 2013, and EPS $2.00+ in 2013 with fewer shares outstanding in 2013 over 2012.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Jeff, what leads you to believe XIN paid the full purchase price of the NY and Beijing deals from its $605 million cash number?

      If true, that's a huge piece of news because it would verify roughly $300 million in cash ($220M for the purchases, plus enough money to continue day to day running of the company after those payments) from the company's $605 million 2Q cash number, nearly 50%.

      Using outgoing payments as a stand in for cash verification is a process fraught with peril, a lesson I (expensively) learned on CCME. But when the actual verifiable use of that cash number approaches 50%, that's a pretty strong indicator. The best I ever did on CCME was about 11% of the cash number in one month.

      The point is important enough that I've previously looked pretty hard for the breakdown of those purchases, but couldn't find it anywhere. It's not in the press releases or the 6-K's.

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