price 2.74 to 2.80 today...
5 day = 2.80
20 day = 2.73
50 day = 2.76
100 day = 2.76
200 day = 2.72
More than 500f$2.50 calls expiring next week (would tend to drive price down)
purchases and earnings call soon (would tend to drive price up)
Blue ridge - could they be done selling (drives price up) or continuuing (keeps stagnation / drives down)
Thoughts on what will happen & when?
don't care about southern view,
But really thinking we'll wait for 2013 to watch XIN above $ 4.
In case of a nice Q3 -expecting that- may be a short party reaching $3.20 and both ideas taking into account BR 's selling ALL THEIR POS.
If nobody does an agreement with BR to buy them directly, we must wait and nothing to say or do.
For my part 'll be adding 5 numbers -at least 10K ADRs- on december before closing the balance (no matter the price or any Fibo).
I'm hoping Barnard (WhackoTrader) can run the numbers for us to estimate Blue Ridge potential sales. If BR is selling its whole position, I don't think they are done, so I see selling pressure. The couple things I'm looking forward to for clarity are:
1) 13-H (i think this is the disclosure BR will product in 2nd week of Nov for sales through 9/30/12)
2) PR from XIN regarding next dividend payment dates
3) Conference call - discussion of details and dates for revenue impact of New US and Beijing purchases and hopefully clarity on the cash/debt purchase method for the properties.
My short term call is that this will remain weak until we get 1-3. Then it a matter of if BR is still selling. During the conference call I am hopeful for some new analysts and investors asking questions. I want to learn about how the non-deal road show went in September. I am also hopeful that there is a change of tone regarding the "legitimacy" factor of the company. I'm in the camp that there really is very little risk for shareholders by having a forensic audit or releasing the Chinese version of the accounting records. To me, the market does not trust XIN and I want them to pinpoint and target ways to make the company transparent and verifiable to investors.
1. I think the schedule we want there is 13F's, and I agree on the timing: 45 days after end of Q.
2. I guess that's true, they have been releasing the dividend dates separately from the ER's so far. That seems like a smart policy. It probably won't fool many folks, but the alternative is to bury the announcement inside the ER, where it definitely won't fool anybody, so nothing ventured, nothing gained.
3. I'm not sure there was a road show. I emailed twice asking for the east coast dates, but never heard back. Plus, that was Gurnee talking, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. In the breath after announcing the road show, he went on to say the cities, dates and venues would be announced ahead of time, but that didn't happen. The last time there was a phantom road show, Gurnee was actually in Washington giving his Longtop deposition. Maybe "road show" is some kind of code or something.
4. I think you'll get unanimous agreement on the forensic audit point. It's as simple as this: if XIN does a forensic audit (or equivalent cash verification procedure), its share price will rise dramatically. How could any sane shareholder oppose a price increase?
I think you are absolutely right about market not trusting the company. The biggest problem for me is the fact the company hired a non-Chinese speaking CFO (while the CEO merely speaks English) who has no good track record, I'm always troubled by that. Plus, I could never seem to get a response from this Tom Gurnee guy. And, if Blue Ridge is selling at this price on the open market, you have to wonder WHY? Too many illogical things, hard to have much confidence.
Blue Ridge is the only decisive factor in the near term. Options don't matter, as buys and sells cancel out each others.
As long as BR sells, we will be under pressure, potentially for months. But I could care less.