If Romney is elected, what's the impact on China's economy?
Romney has pretty harsh stance on China. He threatened to label China as a currency manipulator from Day 1 of his office and initiated a trade war with China. Everybody knows China's economy still highly relies on export, and the US is China's top trade partner after EU. A trade war will certainly have huge negative impact on China's economy. What's your opinion?
Meanwhile, no matter how harsh Romney is now on China doesn't necessarily mean he will eventually be harsh on China once he becomes the president.
Like any party change in the United States, Romney has things he wants to do. Those things will impact individual Chinese, some will win and some will lose. Just like the impact of controllable policy changes impact on individual United States citizens, some lose while others win. The overall impact , as measured by the trading accounts between the two countries, will not change.
My view is that beating on China is a good campaign issue, but a terrible public policy issue.
It's easy to demonize the country that will one day replace us as the most powerful and influential country on earth, but it's a lot harder to actually change policy towards them.
Our economies are so interdependent that it'd be virtually impossible to impose sanctions on China that wouldn't also boomerang back on us. Plus, how can you whack a country over the head when they hold $1.5 trillion of your debt? Tricky business, that.
Even if Governor Romney wins, I'd be really surprised if national policy towards China changed very much.
China will replace the United States as the country with the highest GNP in my life time. Supplanting the United States as the most powerful and influential country on earth without a world war is in the murky future, hundreds, perhaps never, years.
"That's what I will do in bringing all parties together, not negotiating behind closed doors, but bringing all parties together, and broadcasting those negotiations on C-SPAN so that the American people can see what the choices are, because part of what we have to do is enlist the American people in this process," Obama said at a debate in Los Angeles on Jan. 31, 2008. "