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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

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  • bruceoren bruceoren Oct 22, 2012 7:33 PM Flag

    Grats Longs!

    Xodin, you're trying to have it both ways. You say that XIN is going much higher, yet you take a quick profit with half your shares. You go on to say that if we hit $4 that could easily push us to $5 or $6 --- but wait, then you say that we'll hit $4-4.20 and pause to consolidate, not push. "Then it's either up or down, largely depending on earnings outcome and 2013 projections." Binding stock price to news sounds like fundamental investing, not at all TA-ish.

    Sorry to hassle you of these minor points, and congratulations on your substantial gains, but your post seems to try to validate TA with forecasts and actions that are correct no matter what direction XIN turns.

    Full disclosure: I'm a fundamental value investor who's wildly bullish on XIN and plans to patiently hold all my XIN shares until $30 (2015?). Good trading to all.

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    • Well, a move from $3 to $5-6 will hardly ever go in a straight line. What I meant by the possibility of going up or down from $4 based on news is that if the news isn't overwhelmingly fantastic, we could see some consolidation at that level before pushing on to $5-6--but it certainly won't come back down to $3.00 unless they surprise with something awful in the forecast.

      Fundamentally, XIN is worth $10-15, but TA wise, it should be heading to around $6.25-6.40 in the intermediate term (see my addendum from the conservative $5-6 above). What happens at $4-4.20 though will depend on how these two inverted head and shoulders patterns jive with one another. The second pattern could directly extend off the first pattern and we could see an extremely rapid rise, but more likely we're going to see a short pause somewhere around that area before heading higher.

      If I were to make a random guess, I'd say that we're going to push to the $4-4.20 level within a few days, and then consolidate there until earnings--at which point we'll head higher. Mediocre news could extend that consolidation past earnings, or even result in a slight pullback to the high $3's, but conversely, good news would likely cause the rally to resume. Any negative effect from earnings news though is short term, the second inverse head and shoulders pattern is intermediate term, as it's based on a 3-yr pattern that will take at least 6 months to complete--so regardless of the short term, in the intermediate to long term we are certainly heading to $6+. Sorry if the way I said it was confusing. I sometimes write my messages quickly and don't always repeat all the details.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to xodin00
      • Wow aren't you great Xdon, you came back on Friday with your prediction after the divy was announced, and knowing that earnings were coming due. Hey Sherlock I hope you
        didn't put too much effort into that obvious TA analysis that most didn't even have to look
        at to know what the above 2 things would elicit. As far as you calling it, wrong. Guess you
        didn't see Barnard's posts. Again, he knew what was coming as well, but if you looked
        at the chart the day he posted, it was ready to move. What was not clear imo was which direction. Only those 2 facts that you knew and the fact that it did the same thing before
        (which is the time I shorted it), On top of that you had a couple PR's on the buys, one in
        China and 2 in the US. So it was pretty clear which way it was going to go. So if anyone
        called it, it was Barnard, but go ahead and use both hands to pat yourself on the back, before you tell the board again, 'hey guys, I sold', lol.

      • I think you have amnesia. Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for barnard, but where is this barnard post you mention that has any prediction about XIN moving up? I follow his Whackotrader posts, and he mentions nothing about XIN moving upward. He talks about Blue Ridge selling vs company repurchases, and XIN being range bound, showing Fibonacci levels and bollinger bands.

        I, on the other hand, called the inverse head and shoulders pattern as being completed and the rally well above $3, which btw, is far from obvious, considering XIN has struggled to break $3 despite tons of good news, including a blowout second quarter. In addition, I called the inverse head and shoulders pattern to start the year when we rallied (and I profited) from $1.75 to $3.50! You're just #$%$ cause you're the permabear worthless short who doesn't know how to trade stocks, and instead shorts companies that trade at P/E's of 1.7 and P#$%$ of 0.3.

        Like Hmmm, you're on my ignore list, so not sure why I entertained, but guess you guys caught me on an off day. Anyway, back to ignore for the both of ya. I don't need validation to enjoy my profits.

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