Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board
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Trading In the Clear: Defeat. Short Position Closed.
At the open half an hour ago, I closed my short position from last Friday at $3.38 through $3.41+, an average of a fraction over $3.40, on average.
That represents a butt kicking loss of .35 cents per share, reducing my ongoing XIN cash value from $4.41 to $4.06.
How'd I screw up?
My play was based on the assumption that XIN's spike was caused by the national news mentions it received late last week. But maybe it wasn't. Maybe other factors were at work, as well, possibly new Institutional buying, that just happened to coincide in timing with the news articles.
I also wonder about a second possibility: maybe the news mentions served as a kind of notice alerting potential investors, retail and/or Institutional, that XIN exists. It's possible that XIN's recent US purchases make it more palatable for US investors today than during previous spikes, so while previous notices received from articles, etc., were quickly abandoned and their spikes quickly fell, maybe folks today are more willing to hold XIN on a long term basis. Very few Americans can name three cities in China, but every single one of us knows Brooklyn.
Whatever the answer turns out to be, this much is certain: I got my butt kicked, but good.-
You are too short term oriented. I wouldn't have shorted this stock. But if last week I had decided it was a short I wouldn't have given up as quickly as you. If you're going to short establish a SMALL position. Then let the bet ride
- 1 Reply to walrathcrai
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You could also have bought a put option.
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hhhhhmmmm just buy a bunch of XIN and forget about it for a few years. Shorting a stock worth $30+ now at $3.04 is beyond my comprehension.
PS if you want to make a bet with a big upside potential have a look at CPRX and their phase II b results due in first half of NovemberSentiment: Strong Buy
- 2 Replies to staccani
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Yeah, trading's not for everyone. It takes a steady hand, and you certainly shouldn't expect to win every time you play.
It's days like tomorrow, which has, in my opinion, a much better chance of being a down day than an up day, that allows traders to make profit margins generally above pure investing.
Don't get me wrong: the majority of the stocks I own, I own as an investor, not a trader.
My brother in law shares your interest in pharmaceuticals. I don't know enough about them, myself, but their prices definitely whip-saw based on phase results. -
I hear ya stac. Can't see why anyone would want to attempt to short XIN. The risk of going up is a lot greater than the risk down. Especially when earnings are so close. I just hope we can stay above $3.00 a share for when earnings are announced.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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@Hmmm, thank you for keeping your record transparent. I like your style of learning from your own mistakes. From what you wrote, I further convince myself not to have a position on XIN. It is a stock with low transparency and high manipulation. Short-term trades are extremely difficult. Even for long-term investors, the fraud and Chinese real estate risks are hard to ignore.
- 1 Reply to growth.value
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Thanks, GV. I highly value your opinion.
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too bad, hmmm26, I was hoping you to short more to drive the stock down a little bit. Where is Brooklyn, by the way?
- 1 Reply to bab10m
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OK, looks like the stock is coming down without short sellers, that's why it's boring to have no short sellers in a stock.
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