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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

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  • acorisk acorisk Oct 26, 2012 1:04 PM Flag

    Mechanics of a Trading Mistake

    sorry for your loss, Hmmm....

    I believe XIN is NOT buying right now (they stopped this summer for about 40 or 50 days around earnings - and would be no buying Last week Sept/Oct / Nov - until earnings announced if same this time) -- since they would have insider info if they were trading.

    The pattern we saw makes sense to me in "a stronger market for XIN" with some indecision, and uncertainty around when it will take off & if Blue Ridge will keep selling.

    Result was the health move up (eg the march to 3.37 -- that was a bullish sign & opening was good on Thurs... Surprised it didn't get to $3.48 before the drop - but could well (can't prove) have been blue Ridge with big chunk starting the fall (although making a profit, with a $1.75 basis)....

    GLTA -- if in cash now -- $3.16 is a key point, if up, should jumpt to 3.25 and 3.33 fast. Also, could go to 3.10 or 3.00/2.99 (where there is tons of support) ----- Will be VERY surprising if when earnings come out, we are below 2.99. I'm guessing 3.25

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    • Although I said I thought you shorted too soon, I also said if you were willing to hold more than a couple
      days, you wouldn't lose. Still don't think you would have, you had time .

      • 1 Reply to shelly_showman
      • I never short any stocks before, but I did a little research before regarding short timing. The problem is timing is more difficult for short than long. For long, you can theoretically hold forever, but for short, you have to cover your loss at some point either by yourself or by a margin call.

        Also, it is easier to find a short candidate than find accurate timing for a short. Even many successful traders or fund managers are hurt by awful timing of their shorts. However, some short celebrities can get timing right because their short positions themselves can influence the market. Latest examples are David Einhorn, Carson Block, etc.

    • Acorisk, where do you get your blackout date information? As you know, Rule 10b-18 nor any other SEC provision requires one.

      If it exists, it must be a term XIN decided to impose upon itself. What is their "recipe" for those blackout dates ("We won't buy from the 60th day of the quarter through the ER call," or whatever)?

      Where did you learn that recipe?

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