I used to try to time the market. Got my butt kicked every time. These days, I buy and hold and let life take it's course. The only thing I ever count on is my own bad luck. Whenever I open a new position in a stock, it's usually only a couple hundred bucks worth. Then, a week or two later (just because I bought some) it drops 20%. Then I make my real buy :)
Buying and holding makes the most money. You can only do so much trading short term unless you get real lucky. Your method is good. I usually go in big right away and it usually goes down 20% and I WISH I would have waited for some cheaper shares.