Welcome to the Board's Election Prediction Contest!
Everyone's invited to play, especially Lurkers and infrequent posters. It doesn't matter if you've posted here a lot, a little, or never before, everyone's invited to guess.
Also, we still need a few board regulars' guesses: Don, Peregrine, GV, Casey (although he's alluded to taking the 269-269 tie possibility), Shel, and a few others.
Our current guesses reflect the basically tied nature of the race itself: 4 people are picking Obama to win, 3 are picking Romney. Here's the exact list. If you're not used to picking the electoral college, don't worry, nobody is. There's a "How to Make Electoral College Picks" section at the bottom of this post.
Walt: Obama 282 - Romney 256
Jeffrey: Obama 287 - Romney 251
Jeannemcal: Obama 291 - Romney 247
Me: Obama 281 - Romney 257
Texas Trader: Romney 282 - Obama 256
Stock Slayer: Romney 286 - Obama 252
Biden Bites: Romney 321 - Obama 217
How to Make Electoral College Picks:
1. The Easy Way.
Just divide up the 538 electoral college votes towards your guy. 269 to 269 would be a tie (it's crazy, but possible), so 270's the magic winning number. Both guys will definitely get more than 200 EC votes, so start with that as a floor. The bigger you think your guy will win, the more EC votes above 270 you should give him. Your guess doesn't have to actually be possible.
2. The Fun Way.
Goto "RealClearPolitics" site. On the first page, in the column down the right side, inside the box of numbers, click "RCP Electoral Map". When the map comes up, just below where they have Alaska, click "Create Your Own Map".
Then a map comes up with the non battleground states already colored in, and you can pick the battleground states however you want. RCP will total up your EC votes for you. The site's also got more polls than you can shake a stick at, in case you want some help.
Walt, if the President sweeps the four states not yet called -- and he's got tiny leads in all 4 -- then you'll be exactly right on your EC total in our personal bet.
That would be pretty effin' amazing.
This would put the nail in the casket for the EC if this happened. The House chooses, I believe so it would be interesting. Of course, if the House chose Obama most people would say "this is bull**** and move on with their lives. If they Romney, you can expect blood in the streets.
LTB, good to see you back! Affairs in Turkalia keep you overlong; come hang with us more.
Also, very cool, very well educated pick. I didn't know about that "in the event of a tie, House picks Prez, but Senate picks the VP" thing until a day or two ago, when Walt told me.
That would create the extremely dangerous situation where some nutjob might make an attempt on the President's life, to change the party of the Executive branch. Yipes.
Guesses are open until 7 pm, eastern. GV, Star, anyone else out there, I can't convince you to make a guess?
It doesn't have to be electoral college guess. Even just "I think [X] will win tiny/med/big" would still be fun.