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A Romney victory on Tuesday wouldn't mean Nate Silver's model was wrong unless his Obama numbers continue to climb, to, say, 99%, or something like that.
My guess is Nate Silver's 4:1 odds are too high, but the polling data definitely has improved for the President over the last week or so. I'd put the odds at 2:1 or maybe 5:2.
It's the same as picking sports. If I bet on a team I know they don't have a 99% chance but if they lose I'm wrong. In fact Silver offered to bet $2,000. If Obama loses Silver IS wrong.
He's offering a real bet for $2000? That's pretty cool. I've got a lot of bets on the elections, too.