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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • hmmm26 hmmm26 Nov 15, 2012 5:14 PM Flag

    MsCrouse, I Tip My Hat to You...

    ...for correctly predicting Blue Ridge was selling its entire position.

    If you don't mind my asking, how did you figure that out? The only data I had was BR's 2 million share reduction in 2Q.

    Were there other data points I missed? How did you know, for example, that the 2 million share sale in 2Q would lead to an 11 million share sale in 3Q, rather than, say, another 2 million share sale in 3Q?

    How could you be sure 2Q's share sales would even be repeated at all?

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    • I wasn't sure they'd be completed out, but I really did think they'd keep selling. Maybe I am delusional and it was a lucky guess, but here is a rough summary of the analysis which is really a recap of what I argued to you last quarter.

      There seemed to be an artificial overhang on the stock (particularly around 3.00) despite a ton of buyers and excellent earnings news. None of the other large institutional holders had sold the prior quarter, nor did they have large enough positions to support the volume of sales. It did not seem to me that retail investors were selling that much stock (or that they would sell it in that fashion -- seemed to be an institutional player). If you were a retail investor who believed in the story before the earnings reports, you did so afterwards unless you were one of those technical analysis blah blah blah guys, so why sell?

      Back to institutions -- sure you can have quant funds jump in and out, but for the most part these positions are like big ships, hard to steer, takes time to maneuver -- for really large positions whatever was done last quarter is likely to continue. And Blue Ridge has been trying to get out for awhile (apparently they filed to sell shares in a prospectus years back) and of course that leads to the possibility of the Chinese private equity fund having to wind down.

 
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