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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

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  • caseysxyz caseysxyz Dec 5, 2012 12:15 PM Flag

    SEC ain't fooling around

    The next logic move would be a Hong Kong listing. It would be an interesting situation to observe whether Hong Kong would accept a delisted company. It would certainly hurt Hong Kong's reputation but their mainland bosses might force that outcome. What is likely is a mainland listing. In that scenario. Without a change in current Chinese law, the foreign investor is locked out. How much of a bath a foreign investor would take is anyone's guess but the Chinese are extremely spiteful people. The US just kicked them out of their markets, do not expect any goodwill with a mainland listing.

    The consequences of delisting are two-fold. First, there is a period of time which trading in the stock is difficult, for most impossible. Second, the stock price will take a dive. Many institutional holders are restricted on the type of investment in the holdings. A delisting will likely trigger a large sell off driving down prices, as supply exceeds demand.

    This is the risk keeping XIN valuation at the insanely low valuation. It is not company risk. It is structural risk. Mr. Market clearly votes this outcome is highly likely.

    Going against a negative outcome is there are some large Chinese listings in play which the power elite derive a significant benefit. Historically, the importance of sovereignty has trumped practical implications in China.

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    • A delisting will be chaotic and is in nobody's interest with the probable exception of some speculators. That's why I think the company should be prepared. The SEC has shown their guns which is not a good sign -- it means that the negotiations went sour. Normally the Chinese wouldn't back down if one understands the culture there, unless of course some cool heads on the top prevail and reach a compromise with the US. Situation like this is how war gets started, and so I have a bad feeling.

      The consequence will be enormous, not just for the Chinese companies listed in the US. I think China has enough capacities to absorb them all either in mainland or in Hong Kong. The problem is with US companies that has China operations. How can they comply with the SEC rules?

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