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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • dow30kby2012 dow30kby2012 Feb 27, 2013 6:39 AM Flag

    2013 forecast a big disappointment

    4Q was very good. However, this is straight from their earnings release.

    "The Company is projecting lower sequential results in the first quarter of 2013 due to the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year as well as lower levels of sellable inventory. The Company expects contract sales in the first quarter reach approximately US$135 million. Revenue is expected to range between US$130 and US$140 million and net income is expected to be in the range of US$16 to US$18 million.
    For the full year 2013, contract sales are projected to exceed US$830 million. Revenue is expected to range between US$750 and US$775 million and net income is expected to be in the range of US$90 million to US$100 million."

    Not only is 1Q going to be extremely weak but the entire year looks to be weak as well.

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    • Hey Dow,

      Good to see you are still invested here. While I do agree 2013 does look light, just remember they have a tendency to lowball expectations and then beat. While Q1 and Q2 will be the two worst quarters of the year, Q3 will pick up and Q4 should be huge. Things will pick up by the end of the year and the markets will notice.

    • From last years 6-K

      The Company expects contract sales in the first quarter of 2012 to be in the range of US$105 to US$115 million. Revenue under the percentage of completion method is expected to range between US$135 and US$145 million and net income in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of US$18.0 to US$21.0 million.

      For the full year 2012, contract sales are expected to be in the range of US$635 to US$655 million. Revenue under the percentage of completion method is expected to range between US$755 and US$775 million and net income is expected to be in the range of US$95 to US$105 million.

    • No matter how you spin it, earnings were good, and 2013 will be better than 2012.
      Book value is now approaching $11.00 per share, and should get to $13.00 by years end.
      They can pay all of their debts, and still have tons of cash on hand to buy more land to build on.
      They made $.47 a share for Q4, which is their slowest quarter. No matter how you look at it, it is all good.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • moron, the 1st quarter is always the weakest quarter due to the chinese new year, which takes place for a week or more, and no work, business deals, etc, can be done during this celebration, look at previous 4th qtr reports, they always announce the 1st quarter will be weaker than the others..

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to johndrew101
      • Hey idiot, I know more about XIN than you could ever wish to. Look at my previous posts. I have been touting this stock when it was below $2. Even with an always slow 1Q factored,XIN,s own outlook is very weak. The entire year looks weak. XIN may pop today but it lacks forward momentum. I'm sure 2014 and beyond will be solid. People just need to temper their expectations.

        And johndrew, you aren't worth any more of my time.

    • they gave the same net income guidance for the 2012FY at the beginning of 2012 and you saw what they finally have They are just conservative !

    • Xinyuan has been getting very conservative with their forward looking estimates on earnings. They initially were expecting $17-$20mil for Q4, but actually resulted in $33.6mil. That's a 68% difference, which is astounding. Fact of the matter is they have cash and cash equivalents of $9/ share and a book value that exceeds that. This baby will be moving closer to those values, and potentially exceeding them by the end of 2013.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
XIN
2.80-0.02(-0.71%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT